The Results, 2015

 

Believe it or not, it has taken me about a week to recover from Polling Day. I have never fought a General Election campaign before – in 2010, I stayed up with a friend and watched the result coming in on the telly – so to do so as an agent, running an MP’s re-election campaign, was quite the baptism of fire. Given that I am also a borough councillor, meaning I was helping out with the local elections as well, it was quite a tough two days because we had the GE count on Thursday night/Friday morning and then we had to be back at the count for 10am on Friday for the results of the borough elections.

For me, it started at around 6am Thursday when I had to commute two hours into Wembley to do a half-day at work, commute the two hours back again, go home, get changed, go our campaigning from around 3pm until 8:45pm – dashing back and forth from the Campaign Committee Room to pick up leaflets, canvass cards, etc – and then back home to get changed and head off to the count. The result, which we were told should come in around 1am, actually didn’t come until gone 3am, with the South Basildon & East Thurrock result coming in at gone 4am. So, you can imagine, getting back to the Sporting Village to hear the local results at 10am the same morning was a real hoot. It was essentially 48 hours of being on the go non-stop with about an hour’s sleep in between. Exhausted does not even cover it. When I finally got home at around 5pm on Friday, I went almost straight to bed and slept the sleep of the dead right through to Saturday morning… when I had to get up to attend a VE Day event at the Basildon Centre. No rest for the wicked!

And what an amazing forty-eight hours it was. Once news of the exit poll started to filter around the hall, the atmosphere was electrified. It became apparent that months and months of pollsters telling us the GE was too close to call and that you couldn’t put a fag paper between the Tories and Labour was quite simply a load of old hogwash. As it turned out, even the exit poll underestimated the strength of the Tory vote and, to our delight, we crossed the magic threshold with 331 seats, giving us a slim working majority of fifteen seats in the House of Commons and the first majority Conservative Government since Sir John Major in 1992 – albeit with an even slimmer majority than Sir John achieved. Though, bearing in mind, in 1992 the Tories lost forty seats while David Cameron has gained twenty-eight. We have not had a Tory majority since I was fifteen years old, so I am elated.

In terms of our own result locally, I made a few predictions about our local parliamentary seats in the wee small hours of the morning of Polling Day and I am delighted to say that I was vindicated on all three. To nobody’s surprise, Mark Francois was re-elected in Rayleigh & Wickford with a stonking majority of 17,230. Mr Francois, a former Basildon borough councillor, who has served as Armed Forces Minister in the Coalition Government, has since been appointed a Minister of State at the Department for Communities & Local Government in Mr Cameron’s new government.

In the neighbouring constituency of South Basildon & East Thurrock, where some had suggested that Stephen Metcalfe might be vulnerable, this was proved to be entirely unfounded. Steve was comfortably re-elected with a 7,691-vote majority over runner-up Ian Luder (UKIP), having secured an impressive 43% share of the vote. I was delighted by this result as Steve has been an extremely diligent and hard-working MP. I made no prediction for Steve’s neighbour in Thurrock, Jackie Doyle-Price, as her constituency lies outside of the Borough of Basildon – with which I primarily concern myself on this blog – but it is worth pointing out that she was widely tipped to lose her seat to UKIP, hardly surprising as she won the seat from Labour in 2010 with a slim majority of just ninety-two votes and UKIP made significant inroads in Thurrock in last year’s local and European elections, when UKIP’s Prospective Parliamentary Candidate, Tim Aker, was elected an MEP and a Thurrock borough councillor. To have been elected an MP as well would’ve turned Mr Aker from zero to hero. But, to everyone’s delight, Jackie has held on, winning re-election with an increased majority of 536. Readers of my last blog will recall that former Basildon councillor Daniel Munyambu was standing against Miss Doyle-Price in Thurrock as an Independent. He secured just seventy-nine votes and lost his deposit.

I was also particularly pleased, as the news started to trickle into the count hall, that Rebecca Harris had kept Castle Point (another seat we were told was at risk) and that Will Quince had won Colchester for the Tories, unseating Sir Bob Russell, the only Liberal MP in Essex (this was before we knew that the Liberals were being decimated everywhere – who could have known they would be reduced to just eight seats?!).

Finally, the result for Basildon & Billericay was an extremely gratifying win for my candidate, John Baron, was re-elected to serve a fourth term in Parliament with a majority of 12,482 (a slightly increased majority on 2010) and 53% of the popular vote. It was a tremendous privilege to serve as John’s agent and help deliver this result along with the rest of John’s terrific team.

You can read my 2015 'Runners & Riders' blog (the first I ever wrote!) here.

See below for the breakdown of results in the parliamentary elections:

Basildon & Billericay – CON Hold

• John Baron (Conservative) – 22,668 ELECTED*
• Gavin Callaghan (Labour) – 10,186
• George Konstantinidis (UKIP) – 8,538
• Martin Thompson (Liberal Democrat) – 1,636 (lost deposit)

South Basildon & East Thurrock – CON Hold

• Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative) – 19,788 ELECTED*
• Ian Luder CBE (UKIP) – 12,097
• Mike Le-Surf (Labour) – 11,493
• Geoff Williams MBE (Liberal Democrat) – 1,356 (lost deposit)
• Kerry Smith (Independent) – 401 (lost deposit)
• None Of The Above X (Independent) – 253 (lost deposit)
• Stuart Hooper (Independent) – 205 (lost deposit)

Rayleigh & Wickford – CON Hold

• Mark Francois (Conservative) – 29,088 ELECTED*
• John Hayter (UKIP) – 11,858
• David Hough (Labour) – 6,705
• Linda Kendall (Independent) – 2,418 (lost deposit)
• Mike Pitt (Liberal Democrat) – 1,622 (lost deposit)
• Sarah Yapp (Green) – 1,529 (lost deposit)

The results were just as rosy for the Tories locally. Although Basildon Council remains hung, we achieved a clean sweep of the three Billericay and three Wickford seats that were up for grabs, including unseating UKIP’s Nigel Le Gresley in Wickford Castledon. We also did well in the Basildon seats, retaining our seats in Laindon Park and Pitsea South-East. We also came tantilisingly close to winning Nethermayne, being just twenty-seven votes shy of winning the seat. Indeed, in every single seat the Conservatives increased their share of the vote. In total, we won eight out of the fourteen seats up for grabs and secured 43% of the popular vote across the Borough.

See full breakdown below:

Billericay East – CON Hold

• David Dadds (Conservative) – 4,085 (61%) ELECTED*
• John Webb (UKIP) – 1,076 (16%)
• Patricia Reid (Labour) – 878 (13%)
• Nigel Horn (Liberal Democrat) – 704 (10%)

As predicted, no big surprises here and delighted to see my friend and ward colleague David Dadds re-elected with a majority of 3,009 votes. David saw a 10 point swing to the Tories over the Tory candidate in 2014 – some loser named Schrader – and secured 61% of the popular vote in the ward.

Billericay West – CON Hold

• Daniel Lawrence BEM (Conservative) 4,419 (64%) ELECTED*
• Susan McCaffery (UKIP) 1,066 (15%)
• Andrew Ansell (Labour) 978 (14%)
• Alan Richards (Liberal Democrat) 421 (6%)

Likewise, no political earthquakes in neighbouring West ward, where my colleague Danny Lawrence was comfortably re-elected with a majority of 3,353 and a 64% share of the popular vote (though Cllr Dadds did demand a re-count when he heard that Cllr Lawrence had scored a bigger majority and share of the vote than he had). Danny was originally elected in a bye-election to replace the late Stephen Horgan in 2012, serving out the rest of Mr Horgan’s term. With this new mandate, Danny will now serve a full four-year term as Councillor for Billericay West.

Burstead – CON Hold

• Kevin Blake (Conservative) 3,898 (62%) ELECTED*
• Paul Downes (UKIP) 1,156 (19%)
• David Kirkman (Labour) 828 (13%)
• Ben Williams (Liberal Democrat) 362 (6%)

Deputy Leader of Basildon Council Kevin Blake was comfortably re-elected seeing off the challenge from Noak Bridge parish councillor Paul Downes, standing for UKIP.

Fryerns – LAB Hold

• Allan Davies (Labour) 1,832 (34%) ELECTED*
• Cliff Hammans (UKIP) 1,749 (32%)
• Sandra Hillier (Conservative) 1,638 (30%)
• Colin Grant (Liberal Democrat) 169 (3%)
• David Murray (Trade Unionist & Socialist) 58 (1%)

Labour’s Allan Davies was defending his traditionally staunch Labour seat but, as I said in my last blog, UKIP won it last time and it was by no means certain that Cllr Davies would hang on. As it happened, he won a narrow victory by just eighty-three votes. Sandra Hillier fought a plucky campaign for the Tories and, although she finished up third, there were less than two hundred votes between her and Cllr Davies.

Laindon Park – CON Hold

• Andrew Barnes (Conservative) 1,871 (35%) ELECTED*
• Anne Marie Waters (UKIP) 1,668 (31%)
• Stephen Gillan (Labour) 1,408 (27%)
• Francis Barnes-Challinor (Liberal Democrat) 226 (4%)
• Patricia Rackley (Independent) 136 (3%)

Much to everybody’s relief, Andy Barnes successfully defended this seat following the retirement of Jilly Hyde. The Tories have lost this seat every year since 2012, first to Labour and then, last year, to UKIP. I was personally hugely relieved that Andy won the seat, not least because the UKIP candidate, Anne Marie Waters, is a particularly odious character whom I would not have wanted to see sitting in our council chamber. Labour will be particularly worried about this result , as it further cements their status as the third party in Basildon politics. The Laindon Park result also saw the end of the political career of former Labour councillor turned Independent, Pat Rackley, who chose to contest re-election in Laindon Park rather than in her previous St Martin’s ward. Her husband, Phil, remains a St Martin’s ward councillor but the loss of Pat puts an end to Independent Labour as an official group and he will now sit alone.

It is great to welcome Cllr Barnes to the Conservative fold on Basildon Council. He has served previously as a councillor on Adur District Council in West Sussex, so I am sure he will hit the ground running. Will be interesting to see how he copes serving on a council alongside his father-in-law, Cllr Tony Hedley (Con, Billericay West).

Lee Chapel North – LAB Hold

• Alan Bennett (Labour) 1,895 (37%) ELECTED*
• Arthur James (UKIP) 1,825 (36%)
• Nicole Schrader (Conservative) 1,131 (22%)
• Steve Nice (Liberal Democrat) 215 (4%)

With the incumbent Labour councillor, former Council Leader Nigel Smith, having retired, Lee Chapel North saw the return to Council of Alan Bennett, who lost the seat to UKIP just last year. While the Labour Group will doubtless be pleased to have Cllr Bennett back on their benches, they will surely be concerned that even if a ward as traditionally safe as Lee Chapel North, he won by such a slim margin – just seventy votes! Of course, Lee Chapel North was also notable for having by far the sexiest candidate in the form of Nicole Schrader – Tory candidate and, I’m also very happy to say, my gorgeous wife. This is the second time that Nicole has stood in Lee Chapel North and, despite it previously being considered an unassailably safe Labour seat, she secured 22% of the vote – a whopping 15-point swing to the Tories from last time.

Nethermayne – UKIP Gain from Lab

• Stephen Hodge (UKIP) 1,700 (30%) ELECTED*
• Mark Coker (Conservative) 1,674 (29%)
• Andrew Gordon (Labour) 1,518 (27%)
• Phil Jenkins (Liberal Democrat) 618 (11%)
• Pauline Kettle (Independent) 176 (3%)

I predicted that this one could get bloody and I was not disappointed. After several re-counts, the seat was called for UKIP’s Stephen Hodge – husband of UKIP Group Leader Linda Allport-Hodge – with just twenty-six votes over Tory candidate Mark Coker. The incumbent Labour councillor, Andrew Gordon, lost the seat convincingly and the sad degradation of the Liberal Democrats were confirmed as former Nethermayne Lib Dem councillor Phil Jenkins finished up in fourth place in what was previously a Lib Dem stronghold.

Pitsea North-West – UKIP Gain from Lab

• Gary Canham (UKIP) 1,731 (35%) ELECTED*
• Keith Bobbin (Labour) 1,611 (33%)
• Ian Dwyer (Conservative) 1,424 (29%)
• Martin Howard (Liberal Democrat) 149 (3%)

Perhaps the biggest upset for the Labour Group of the evening was the loss of long-serving Labour councillor Keith Bobbin, who saw his 409-vote majority overturned by UKIP newcomer Gary Canham, who beat Mr Bobbin by 120 votes. Our candidate, Ian Dwyer, fought a valiant campaign and achieved a twelve-point swing to the Tories. Mr Bobbin remains an Essex county councillor representing the Pitsea division.

Pitsea South-East – CON Hold

• Amanda Arnold (Conservative) 1,841 (35%) ELECTED*
• Jose Carrion (UKIP) 1,637 (31%)
• David Burton-Sampson (Labour) 1,572 (30%)
• Vivien Howard (Liberal Democrat) 177 (3%)

Amanda Arnold successfully defended former Mayor Mo Larkin’s seat for the Conservatives – again, like Laindon Park, against the odds, given that we have lost the seat at every local election since 2012. Just like her new colleague in Laindon Park, Cllr Arnold should hit the ground running, having been Deputy Leader of Thurrock Council. Labour’s David Burton-Sampson was indeed denied victory again, coming third behind UKIP’s Jose Carrion.

St Martin’s – LAB Hold

• Andrew Buxton (Labour) 1,393 (41%) ELECTED*
• Andrew Morris (UKIP) 955 (28%)
• Stephanie Hedley-Barnes (Conservative) 910 (27%)
• Liz Grant (Liberal Democrat) 130 (4%)

Something of an unknown quantity, as there have been no elections here since 2012 (St Martin’s is only a two-member ward) and the incumbent Independent Labour councillor, Pat Rackley, chose to contest Laindon Park ward instead of St Martin’s. Mrs Rackley had been comfortably re-elected in 2011 as a Labour councillor, seeing off a challenge from some lackluster wet-behind-the-ears Tory candidate named Schrader, but she and her husband fell out with the Labour Group shortly after the 2012 local elections. The then Labour Group Leader, Lynda Gordon, presided over those elections, netting Labour an additional four seats (all gained at the Tories’ expense, including the loss of three Cabinet Members) but that wasn’t enough to save her from the infighting that typically characterises Labour politics and she was knifed in the back by the Labour Group shortly after and replaced with Nigel Smith. Her deputy, Phil Rackley, was also ousted and together with Mrs Gordon, they formed the Independent Labour Group. Mrs Rackley remained with Labour for a while until she was driven out by after a bullying campaign. But things seem to have reverted back to normal as far as this safe Labour seat is concerned and Andrew Buxton was comfortably returned with a majority of 438.

Vange – LAB Hold

• Melissa McGeorge (Labour) 1,289 (36%) ELECTED*
• Michael May (UKIP) 1,136 (32%)
• Tony Ball (Conservative) 1,009 (28%)
• Linda Williams (Liberal Democrat) 110 (3%)
• Samuel Bennett (Trade Unionist & Socialist) 39 (1%)

As with St Martin’s, the incumbent Independent councillor, Daniel Munyambu, was not seeking re-election. Mr Munyambu was elected as a Labour councillor in 2011 with a 535-vote majority but left the Labour Group due to ‘legal issues’ in his native Kenya. Labour’s candidate, Melissa McGeorge, a county councillor for Pitsea, was doubtlessly very keen to take Vange – quite possibly still smarting from her failure to take Pitsea North-West last year. She will have been hoping for an easy win but former Tory Leader of Basildon Council Tony Ball had other ideas. Although the main challenge to Mrs McGeorge clearly came from UKIP, the shock entry into the race of such a high profile Tory candidate certainly seems to have terrified Labour. Nevertheless, Cllr McGeorge was returned but, as their Leader and fellow Vange councillor, Byron Taylor, put it on the night “We won…but you made us work for every vote!”

Wickford Castledon – CON Gain from UKIP

• Don Morris (Conservative) 2,018 (48%) ELECTED*
• Nigel Le Gresley (UKIP) 1,529 (37%)
• Jenefer Taylor (Labour) 641 (15%)

This was perhaps the most dramatic result, as the only seat being defended this time by UKIP. Mr Le Gresley won the seat in a bye-election in 2013 following the sad of death of Tory councillor Sylvia Buckley in what was a fairly devastating loss for the Conservative Group. In addition to the shock of losing what had been a fairly safe Tory seat following such a sad loss to the Conservative Group, by a horrific coincidence the night of the count back in 2013 took place just hours after Malcolm and Sylvia Buckley’s son, Christopher, also passed away. Both Chris and Sylvia died of cancer within weeks of one another, not long after the birth of Chris’ first child. It was an unspeakable tragedy for Malcolm and – though obviously no fault of Mr Le Gresley’s – this was a seat we were powerfully keen to win back. We did just that and it was a particularly sweet victory, seeing the return of ‘The Duke of Wickford’ himself, ‘Papa Don’ Morris. Don lost his Wickford Park seat last year but the battle to re-take Wickford Castledon has given us an opportunity to welcome him back into the Tory fold.

Wickford North – CON Hold

• Michael Mowe (Conservative) 3,128 (48%) ELECTED*
• Eunice Brockman (UKIP) 2,285 (35%)
• Albert Ede (Labour) 1,147 (17%)

Cuddly teddy bear Mike Mowe comfortably retained this traditionally safe Tory seat. Albeit with a reduced majority, he successfully saw off the UKIP threat.

Wickford Park – CON Hold

• Chris Jackman (Conservative) 2,355 (52%) ELECTED*
• Derek Harrison (UKIP) 1,474 (32%)
• Matthew Whaley (Labour) 731 (16%)

Chris Jackman was very comfortably returned this time around, albeit with a reduced majority but on a ten-point swing away from UKIP from the 2014 result that saw Don Morris lose the seat to David Harrison.

 

Following on from the elections, the Conservative Group held their AGM on Monday 11th May and Cllrs Phil Turner and Kevin Blake were re-elected Leader and Deputy Leader of the Group respectively. We have since learned that Cllr Byron Taylor has stepped down as Leader of the Labour Group and been replaced by their failed parliamentary candidate Cllr Gavin Callaghan. Cllr Taylor is now serving as Labour’s Deputy Leader. This move mirrors what happened when former councillor Nigel Smith retired from the leadership but stayed on as Cllr Taylor’s deputy. Basildon Council will hold its AGM on the 27th May when Cllr Turner will try to move an Order Paper with the Conservative Group, which remains the largest group on the Council, continuing to lead a minority Conservative administration. I’ll be sure to do a write-up of that meeting for this blog.

Local Elections 2015

It is now officially Polling Day and chronic insomnia allows me this opportunity to make some election night predictions and speak briefly about the elections before us – not just the General Election to Parliament but also our own local borough council elections.

Every politician says at every election that it is “the most important election for a generation” but this one really feels like it and I have never felt more tension about the outcome (and never has the outcome been as uncertain as in these elections). Firstly, a few notes about our own runners and riders and my predictions.

Basildon & Billericay

• John Baron (Conservative)*
• Gavin Callaghan (Labour)
• George Konstantinidis (UKIP)
• Martin Thompson (Liberal Democrat)

My own local constituency, where John Baron is seeking re-election as the Conservative MP for the third time, John was first elected MP for Billericay in 2001 and was re-elected in 2005. He was subsequently re-elected to the new Basildon & Billericay seat following boundary changes. His challengers are Gavin Callaghan (currently a borough councillor for Pitsea South-East) for Labour, George Konstantinidis for UKIP, and Martin Thompson for the Liberal Democrats. The seat falls entirely within the Borough of Basildon.

Mr Callaghan is a rather smug and entitled 26-year-old, who has a reputation as a political pit-bull locally. I dislike him intensely, as I think he is a bully and a self-promoting jerk. I know next to nothing about Mr Konstantinidis other that he is some kind of regional UKIP bigwig, based in Bedford. He’s actually their second PPC for Basildon & Billericay, the previous candidate, Anne Marie Waters, having been mysteriously turfed out in favour of Mr Konstantinidis. I know absolutely nothing about Mr Thompson, who was parachuted in at the last minute as a Lib Dem ‘paper candidate’. Up until the day the Statement of Persons Nominated was produced, no Lib Dem PPC had been announced. John is defending a majority of 12,398.

Prediction: CON Hold – John has been a great asset and has a proven track record over the last fourteen years in Parliament as a principled and hardworking campaigner. To be honest, it was expected that when the boundary changes came in the new seat would not be quite as safe as the old Billericay constituency but, actually, John increased his majority. He is a man of great moral courage and conviction and I have every confidence that he will be receive a resounding endorsement from the electorate tonight.

*NB: Disclaimer – I am Mr Baron’s election agent

South Basildon & East Thurrock

• Stuart Hooper (Independent)
• Mike Le-Surf (Labour)
• Ian Luder CBE (UKIP)
• Stephen Metcalfe (Conservative)*
• Kerry Smith (Independent)
• Geoff Williams MBE (Liberal Democrat)
• None Of The Above X (Independent)

Our neighbouring constituency, where Conservative Stephen Metcalfe is fighting for re-election, having been elected as the first MP for the new SBET seat in 2010, beating Angela (now Baroness) Smith, who had been Labour MP for Basildon since 1997. He faces a stiff challenge from Mike Le-Surf (currently a Brentwood councillor) for Labour, former Lord Mayor of London Ian Luder for UKIP, and veteran councillor Geoff Williams (currently a borough councillor for Nethermayne) for the Lib Dems. There are also three independent candidates, including disgraced former UKIP councillor Kerry Smith (who yesterday publicly asked his supporters to back Steve Metcalfe), Stuart Hooper and ‘None Of The Above X’ (boxer Terry Marsh, who has changed his name by Deed Poll in protest at the lack of an abstention option on the ballot). The ‘South Basildon’ contingent of the constituency fall within the Borough of Basildon – namely the two Pitsea wards, Nethermayne, Langdon Hills and Vange. The remaining East Thurrock wards fall under the Borough of Thurrock.

I don’t know much about Mr Le-Surf other than that he is a senior Labour councillor in the neighbouring Borough of Brentwood, where he was until recently the Labour Group Leader on Brentwood Council. Mr Luder I know a little better, as he was until recently the Chairman of Basildon & Thurrock University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, of which I am also a governor. I was surprised when he resigned from the Trust prematurely to stand as the UKIP PPC for SBET, not least because Ian was previously a Labour councillor in Bedford of some thirty years’ standing. Ian was, of course, selected by UKIP following a truly disastrous local selection process that saw Kerry Smith – then a UKIP Essex county councillor and Leader of the UKIP Group on Basildon Borough Council selected, de-selected (to make way for a ‘big beast’), re-selected (after the aforementioned ‘big beast’, disgraced former Tory MP Neil Hamilton, pulled out of the running) and finally de-selected again after a tape recording of a telephone conversation emerged, in which Mr Smith made racist and homophobic remarks. Mr Williams – or ‘Uncle Geoff’, as he’s sometimes affectionately known, is also well-known to me, as he is a fellow Basildon borough councillor. Geoff is currently the longest-serving Basildon councillor and was awarded the MBE last year. Steve is defending a majority of 5,772.

Prediction: CON Hold – This is going to be a very tight race and Steve faces a tough challenge from both Messrs Le-Surf and Luder but I believe Steve will hang in there. He has been a fantastic and hardworking MP and I have always admired him for his dedication and commitment. He is a lovely guy and thoroughly deserves to be re-elected.

Rayleigh & Wickford

• Mark Francois (Conservative)*
• John Hayter (UKIP)
• David Hough (Labour)
• Linda Kendall (Independent)
• Mike Pitt (Liberal Democrat)
• Sarah Yapp (Green)

Only the three Wickford wards of this constituency fall under the Borough of Basildon, Rayleigh and the rest of the constituency falling under the District of Rochford. Consequently, I actually know very little about the runners and riders in this one, though I do know a fair bit about the Tory incumbent Mark Francois, who has been MP for the current seat since it was created in 2010. He had previously been MP for the old Rayleigh seat since 2001 but cut his political teeth here in Basildon, when he was a borough councillor for Langdon Hills. Mr Francois is currently Minister of State for the Armed Forces. He is defending a majority of 22,338.

Prediction: CON hold – all the polls seem to indicate that Mr Francois will be comfortably returned.

Moving to the borough level, we have fourteen seats on Basildon Borough Council up for grabs to determine who will take charge of the currently hung council, which is presently led by a minority Tory administration. There are 42 seats on Basildon Council, of which currently 17 are Conservative, 10 UKIP, 9 Labour, 3 Independence, 2 Independent Labour and 1 Liberal Democrat. Here are the runners and riders locally. I will not make any predictions on these ones, as I don’t have any polling data to hand on which to reliably predict the result and, anyway, while I think there are some seats we’ll definitely win and some we’ll definitely lose, it would violate the well-established political mantra of never conceding defeat before an election and would be unfair for any colleagues who read this beforehand and saw me predicting them not winning!

Billericay East

• David Dadds (Conservative)*
• Nigel Horn (Liberal Democrat)
• Patricia Reid (Labour)
• Herbert John Webb (UKIP)

I am not expecting any big surprises in my own ward, where my ward colleague David Dadds is seeking re-election. David has been a councillor since 2002 and is cerebral and very able. He is currently Chairman of the Overview & Scrutiny Commission on the Council. Mr Horn has stood here as the Lib Dem candidate at every local election since 2010. Mrs Reid has been the Labour candidate here since at least 2003. The only slight surprise was that the infamous Terry Gandy – he of the blazer and big hat – does not seem to be standing for UKIP this time. Instead we have the never before heard of Herbert John Webb. David was last re-elected in 2011 with 65% of the vote and a majority of 2,059.

Billericay West

• Andrew Ansell (Labour)
• Daniel Lawrence BEM (Conservative)*
• Susan McCaffery (UKIP)
• Alan Richards (Liberal Democrat)

Likewise, I doubt we will see any political earthquakes in neighbouring West ward, where my colleague Danny Lawrence is seeking re-election, having won a bye-election in West in 2012, following the sad death of Stephen Horgan. Danny is a hardworking councillor and has served a term as Deputy Mayor. His background is in community radio and he was awarded the British Empire Medal by the Queen last year. Mr Ansell stood here for Labour last year, largely it would seem as a paper candidate. Miss McCaffery is a Billericay town councillor for UKIP and previously always contested Billericay East but stood in West last year too. Alan Richards stood for the Liberals in Langdon Hills last year. There are no elections there this year, so now he’s standing here. Danny is defending a majority of 1,114.

Burstead

• Kevin Blake (Conservative)*
• Paul Downes (UKIP)
• David Kirkman (Labour)
• Ben Williams (Liberal Democrat)

Kevin Blake is seeking re-election and is currently Deputy Leader of the Council and Cabinet Member for Leisure & Arts. Mr Downes is a UKIP Noak Bridge parish councillor who stood in Burstead last year. Mr Kirkman, son of former Labour council leader Paul Kirkman and himself a former councillor for Fryerns, is standing here for Labour. He stood in Nethermayne last year but the incumbent  Labour councillor is defending his seat there this year, so Mr Kirkman has been drafted in here. Likewise, Mr Williams (son of Geoff) is a former Lib Dem councillor for Nethermayne ward but has stood as a paper candidate for the Liberals in Burstead since 2012. Kevin is defending a majority of 1,715, which he won in 2011.

Fryerns

• Allan Davies (Labour)*
• Colin Grant (Liberal Democrat)
• Cliff Hammans (UKIP)
• Sandra Hillier (Conservative)
• David Murray (Trade Unionist & Socialist)

Allan Davies is defending this traditionally staunch Labour seat in Basildon but can be guaranteed of nothing, as UKIP’s David Sheppard won it last year, costing veteran Labour councillor Bill Archibald his seat. Sandra Hillier (a former Tory councillor for Langdon Hills, who lost her seat last year) is fighting a spirited campaign for us and Mr Davies will also be nervous about the Trade Unionist & Socialist Alliance candidate splitting his vote. This one may be a close call!

Laindon Park

• Andrew Barnes (Conservative)
• John Barnes-Challinor (Liberal Democrat)
• Stephen Gillan (Labour)
• Pat Rackley (Independent)
• Anne Marie Waters (UKIP)

Andy Barnes is defending this seat for the Conservatives following the retirement of Jilly Hyde, who held the seat since 2007. Jilly was last re-elected in 2011 with a slim majority of 152 over Labour’s John McCrea but the seat went Labour in 2012 when Frank Tomlin lost his seat to John Scarola and then in 2014 it was won by UKIP’s Mark Ellis, costing John Dornan his seat. However, this is a seat we can win and Andy has been fighting a vigorous ground war there and may be aided by the fact that newcomer Mr Gillan may see his vote split by the Independent candidate, Pat Rackley. Mrs Rackley is currently an Independent Labour councillor for St Martin’s ward, having left the Labour Group along with her husband and fellow St Martin’s councillor, Phil. She is up for re-election this year but has chosen to contest Laindon Park rather than St Martin’s. Andy may also be helped by the fact that the UKIP candidate, Miss Waters, is a rather controversial and rather unsavoury character (she is a prominent Islamophobic bigot) and also apparently thought nobody in Laindon would notice that she is also standing for Parliament in Lewisham East, thus making her commitment to the residents of Laindon somewhat doubtful.

Lee Chapel North

• Alan Bennett (Labour)
• Arthur James (UKIP)
• Steve Nice (Liberal Democrat)
• Nicole Schrader (Conservative)

Incumbent councillor and former Council Leader Nigel Smith is retiring at this election and Labour’s candidate to succeed him is former councillor Alan Bennett, who lost this hitherto seemingly unassailable safe Labour seat to UKIP last year. Mr Smith’s retirement gives Mr Bennett an early opportunity to try and win it back. UKIP’s Arthur James will be hoping to repeat his party’s success of last year, when they captured both the Lee Chapel North seats then up for grabs. Steve Nice is standing here for the Liberals, as he has done every year since 2006. Our candidate is smart and hardworking and very well known to me (it's my wife).

Nethermayne

• Mark Coker (Conservative)
• Andrew Gordon (Labour)*
• Stephen Hodge (UKIP)
• Phil Jenkins (Liberal Democrat)
• Pauline Kettle (Independent)

Andrew Gordon is the incumbent Labour councillor in this previously staunch Liberal stronghold. Until 2011, all three ward councillors here were Liberal Democrats. Indeed, until the year before it had been a personal fiefdom of local Lib Dem dynasty, the Williamses – Geoff and Linda and their son, Ben. Ben had to resign his seat in 2010 when he went to work for Nick Clegg in government and, although Phil Jenkins won the subsequent bye-election for the Liberals, he lost the seat the following year to Mr Gordon. I stood here myself in 2012, against ‘Uncle Geoff’ Williams, who won a dramatic re-election, but his wife Linda was not so lucky in 2014, when she lost the seat to Kerry Smith, who subsequently became UKIP Group Leader on Basildon Council. Mr Smith has since parted company with UKIP but they are fielding Stephen Hodge, husband of current UKIP Group Leader Linda Allport-Hodge, to try and repeat his success. Mr Jenkins is also back, seeking to restore the Lib Dems to glory. Mark Coker will be fighting in the Conservative interest and we also have an ‘Independent’ candidate, Pauline Kettle, whose agent just happens to be a certain ‘K. Smith’. This one could get bloody.

Pitsea North-West

• Keith Bobbin (Labour)*
• Gary Canham (UKIP)
• Ian Dwyer (Conservative)
• Martin Howard (Liberal Democrat)

Stalwart Keith Bobbin is defending his 409-vote majority here against a concerted effort from both us and UKIP to dislodge him. Pitsea NW lost its last Tory councillor last year when Ron Livesey retired and the election was won by UKIP’s Imelda Clancy (Mrs Clancy has since left the party, along with her son, Kerry) in what must have been a major blow to Labour, who were expecting to retake the seat for themselves and put up a big hitter – Essex county councillor Melissa McGeorge – with that in mind. Ian Dwyer is fighting a plucky campaign to flummox them all by giving Pitsea NW a Tory councillor once more!

Pitsea South-East

• Amanda Arnold (Conservative)
• David Burton-Sampson (Labour)
• Jose Carrion (UKIP)
• Vivien Howard (Liberal Democrat)

Amanda Arnold is defending this seat for the Conservatives, following the retirement of Mayor Mo Larkin, who was re-elected here in 2011 with a slim majority of 141 over Labour. Since then, Tory Ann Blake lost her seat to Labour’s Aidan McGurran in 2012 and last year our colleague David Abrahall lost his seat to UKIP’s Stephen Ward. Mayor Mo was an iconic figure, so Amanda has big shoes to fill but she is a seasoned political fighter and should be in with a good chance of restoring Tory fortunes in Pitsea SE, while David Burton-Sampson (who doubtless expected to win when he stood here last year) will be hoping not to get out-foxed again.

St Martin’s

• Andrew Buxton (Labour)
• Liz Grant (Liberal Democrat)
• Stephanie Hedley-Barnes (Conservative)
• Andrew Morris (UKIP)

I cut my political teeth in St Martin’s ward – which includes Basildon Town Centre – when I stood here in 2011 in my first ever election. Then, Labour’s Pat Rackley was comfortably re-elected with a 447-vote majority over me. Today, we’ve both moved on. Mrs Rackley, now a member of the Independent Labour Group on Basildon Council (which consists of her and her husband and fellow St Martin’s councillor, Phil Rackley) is seeking re-election in Laindon Park ward instead and Labour’s Andrew Buxton will be hoping Labour’s vote holds. UKIP are untested here, as there were no elections in St Martin’s last year when they swept the board. In 2012, when Mr Rackley (then Labour) was re-election, the UKIP candidate came third behind the Tories’ Tony Low.

Vange

• Tony Ball (Conservative)
• Stephen Bennett (Trade Unionist & Socialist)
• Michael May (UKIP)
• Melissa McGeorge (Labour)
• Linda Williams (Liberal Democrat)

The incumbent councillor, Daniel Munyambu, is not seeking re-election. Mr Munyambu was elected in 2011 with a 535-vote majority for Labour. Certain legal difficulties in his native Kenya meant that he fell out with the Labour Group recently and has seen out the end of his term, firstly as a member of the Independent Labour Group and latterly as part of Kerry Smith’s ‘Independence’ outfit – sitting as Deputy Leader of that group, between Kerry and his mother, Imelda (I bet that was fun). Mr Munyambu has now moved over to Thurrock, where he is somewhat astonishingly standing for Parliament. Mrs McGeorge, thwarted in her attempts last year to get elected to Basildon Council in Pitsea North-West, is hoping to recapture Vange for Labour. As with St Martin’s, UKIP are a slightly unknown quantity in Vange as there were no elections here last year. In 2011, Kim Gandy (now also since fallen out with the party) stood for UKIP and came third. Former military man, Michael May, is standing for the party this time. Mrs McGeorge may see her vote split by the presence of a Trade Unionist & Socialist Alliance candidate and another fly in her ointment is the presence of former Tory Leader of the Council, Tony Ball, on the ticket. Tony lost his seat last year in what was probably the biggest upset of the 2014 local elections but he is leaping straight back into the fray and putting some stick about in Vange to give Labour and UKIP a run for their money. Mrs Williams, having lost her Nethermayne seat last year too, is gamely standing here for the Lib Dems.

Wickford Castledon

• Nigel Le Gresley (UKIP)*
• Don Morris (Conservative)
• Jenefer Taylor (Labour)

Nigel Le Gresley was UKIP’s first ever councillor on Basildon Council, winning a shock victory in the 2013 bye-election caused by the death of Tory councillor Sylvia Buckley. Mr Le Gresley, who is currently Deputy Mayor of Basildon, will be hoping to retain his seat. Equally determined to deprive him of it, however, will be stalwart former Tory councillor, Don Morris, who lost his Wickford Park seat last year. Jen Taylor, wife of Labour leader Byron, is fighting for Labour. As with last year, there are no Lib Dem candidates in Wickford.

Wickford North

• Eunice Brockman (UKIP)
• Albert Ede (Labour)
• Michael Mowe (Conservative)*

Mike Mowe is seeking to defend his 1,035-vote majority here and should be safe, thanks to his strong record of working tirelessly for his residents. He will doubtless be mindful that this did not help Tony Ball last year when he lost this seat in one of the most shocking results of the night and is not resting on his laurels. Mike will be fighting tooth and nail to retain this seat.

Wickford Park

• Derek Harrison (UKIP)
• Chris Jackman (Conservative)*
• Matthew Whaley (Labour)

Chris Jackman is undoubtedly one of the nicest guys on Basildon Council and is defending a majority here of 1,064. Like Mike, however, he will doubtless be mindful of the fate of his old ward colleague Don Morris and doing everything in his power to remind local residents of his strong record and make sure Wickford turns back blue.

 

Just enough time for some interesting factoids. We have three husband a wife teams standing this year: Colin & Liz Grant standing for the Lib Dems in Fryerns and St Martin’s respectively; Andrew Barnes & Stephanie Hedley-Barnes standing for the Tories in Laindon Park and St Martin’s; and Martin & Viv Howard standing for the Lib Dems in Pitsea North-West and South-East respectively.

In addition, we have an impressive six spouses of current councillors: Sandra Hillier, wife of Stephen Hillier (Con, Langdon Hills); Nicole Schrader, wife of yours truly; Stephen Hodge, husband of Linda Allport-Hodge (UKIP, Langdon Hills); Linda Williams, wife of Geoff Williams (LibDem, Nethermayne); Don Morris, husband of Carole Morris (Con, Wickford North); and Jen Taylor, wife of Byron Taylor (Lab, Vange).

We also have two children of sitting councillors: Ben Williams, son of Geoff; and Stephanie Hedley-Barnes, daughter of Tony Hedley (Con, Billericay West). In addition, David Kirkman is the son of former Labour leader, Paul Kirkman. Technically Tony Ball would also fall under this category, as I believe his father was also once a Tory councillor and a past Leader of Basildon Council.

There are four retiring councillors – Cllrs Jilly Hyde (Con, Laindon Park), Nigel Smith (Lab, Lee Chapel North), Mo Larkin (Con, Pitsea South-East) and Daniel Munyambu (Ind, Vange) – and a whopping eight former councillors are seeking to re-join the Council: Ben Williams (former Lib Dem councillor for Nethermayne, seeking election in Burstead); David Kirkman (former Labour councillor for Fryerns, also seeking election in Burstead); Sandra Hillier (former Tory councillor for Langdon Hills, seeking election in Fryerns); Alan Bennett (former Labour councillor for Lee Chapel North, seeking re-election there); Phil Jenkins (former Lib Dem councillor for Nethermayne, seeking re-election there); Tony Ball (former Tory councillor for Wickford North, seeking election in Vange); Linda Williams (former Lib Dem councillor for Nethermayne, also seeking election in Vange); and Don Morris (former Tory councillor for Wickford Park, seeking election in Wickford Castledon).