Tuesday, May 8, 2018

The Results, 2018

Conservatives take back Basildon Council

The new composition of the Council is 23 Conservatives, 12 Labour, 5 UKIP and 2 Independence from the EU.

Thursday was an exceptionally good night for the Conservatives (much better than 2016). We held the five seats we were defending (Billericay East, Billericay West, Burstead, Crouch and Wickford North) and, in addition, won five more (Laindon Park, two seats in Pitsea South-East, Wickford Castledon and Wickford Park). UKIP, who were the second largest party on the Council, lost all the seats they were defending (Fryerns, Laindon Park, Langdon Hills, Lee Chapel North and Pitsea South-East) and had a pretty disastrous night all round. Their group has now been halved to just five remaining councillors. Labour gained three seats (Fryerns, Lee Chapel North and Pitsea North-West) and are now, once again, the second largest party on 12 seats.

The two ‘Independence from the EU’ councillors (Kerry Smith and Imelda Clancy) remain but the two Wickford Independents (David Harrison and Alan Ball) lost their seats, bringing an end to their presence on Basildon Council.

The new composition of the Council is 23 Conservatives, 12 Labour, 5 UKIP and 2 Independence from the EU. This puts the Conservatives over the magic number and means we are back in administration at Basildon Council. The Lab/UKIP/Independent alliance has been defeated. The detailed breakdown of results is as follows.

 

BILLERICAY EAST – Con HOLD

 

Andrew SCHRADER – 2,584 (78%) *Elected

Thomas SCANLAN – 555 (17%)

Susan McCAFFERY – 186 (6%)

I was delighted to be re-elected by the good burghers of Billericay East – my very noble and approved good masters – whom in their wisdom and generosity, have seen fit to return me as their representative for another four years with a gratifyingly stonking majority and a 78% share of the vote. That’s an 18-point swing to the Conservatives from last time and a 27-point swing from what I achieved when I was last re-elected in 2014. Tom Scanlan and his magnificent beard came a respectable second, albeit a point down on Pat Reid’s result last time. Miss McCaffery was a distant third and saw a 16-point drop in UKIP’s share of the vote.

Cllr Andrew Schrader (Con, Billericay East)

 

BILLERICAY WEST – Con HOLD

 

Anthony HEDLEY – 2,677 (81%) *Elected

Malcolm REID – 528 (16%)

Philip GIBBS – 120 (4%)

My dear friend and ward neighbour, Tony Hedley, was successfully returned with another huge majority of 2,149 votes ahead of runner-up Mr Reid – 15 points up on the 2016 result (23 points on Tony’s last re-election in 2014). Labour’s share of the vote was down 3 points but, again, it was a disastrous showing for UKIP, who were down 12 points. As I predicted in my ‘Runners and Riders’ blog last month, Dr Gibbs’ curious decision to stand in Billericay West rather than Langdon Hills did not pay off and his candidacy sank like a stone.

Cllr Tony Hedley (Con, Billericay West) – clearly unable to contain his joy

 

BURSTEAD – Con HOLD

 

Andrew BAGGOTT – 2,881 (83%) *Elected

Santa BENNETT – 476 (14%)

David HOUGHTON – 114 (3%)

The avuncular Andy Baggott secured re-election in Burstead with a massively increased majority of 2,405 votes (the largest single majority) and a 21-point swing to the Conservatives since last time on what was the highest turnout of the night (40%). Hardly surprising given the effect of the highly unpopular Lab/UKIP Local Plan in Burstead Ward. Labour’s vote was more or less steady, with Mrs Bennett dropping a single point on what David Kirkman achieved last time. Once again, UKIP took a drubbing here, dropping an eye-watering 20 points. Ouch.

Cllr Andy Baggott (Con, Burstead)

 

CROUCH – Con HOLD

 

Terri SARGENT – 1,474 (74%) *Elected

Sally MUYLDERS – 372 (19%)

Kevin PIPER – 141 (7%)

Terri Sargent retained her Crouch seat with a majority of 1,102 and a 74% share of the vote – a 20-point swing to the Conservatives. Unlike the Billericay seats, Mrs Muylders managed to marginally increase the Labour vote share by a single point but, as elsewhere, the UKIP has almost completely collapsed, with Mr Piper suffering another 20-point drop in the UKIP vote compared to Richard Petchey’s result in 2016.

Cllr Terri Sargent (Con, Crouch)

 

FRYERNS – Lab GAIN from UKIP

 

David KIRKMAN – 1,016 (49%) *Elected

Christopher ALLEN – 704 (34%)

David SHEPPARD – 370 (18%)

Interesting result in Fryerns Ward, which was a predictable Labour gain from UKIP, having always been a safe Labour seat prior to 2014, which Labour have won back every year since. Basildon Labour’s ‘Red Prince’, David Kirkman (son of former Labour council leader Paul Kirkman), won the seat with a 312-vote majority over the runner-up, Tory Chris Allen. Sitting UKIP councillor David Sheppard came an embarrassing third, dropping a whopping 25 points since his win in 2014. This result represents a relatively modest 5-point swing to Labour since the 2016 result. Chris put in a very strong showing, however, with a 13-point swing to the Tories in this usually safe Labour seat. Frankly, I think this puts Fryerns in contention as a future target seat, if we can keep narrowing that gap.

Chris Allen

 

LAINDON PARK – Con GAIN from UKIP

 

Jeff HENRY – 1,013 (44%) *Elected

Clarence ZWENGUNDE – 857 (37%)

Mark CONROY 448 (19%)

We achieved a brilliant result in Laindon Park, in what was the first Conservative gain of the evening. Jeff Henry, who also won the Laindon Park & Fryerns county division last year, won the borough seat this year with a majority of 156 votes over Labour’s Clarence Zwengunde. This was a particularly gratifying victory after the kick in the teeth we received there in 2016, when our then candidate Gary Maylin came a distant second behind UKIP’s Hazel Green. Jeff has enjoyed a 16-point swing to the Conservatives. UKIP, who were nominally defending the seat, saw their share of the vote collapse by 19 points and Mark Conroy, nominally defending the seat of the outgoing former UKIP Councillor for Laindon Park, Mark Ellis, was beaten into third place. But Labour will be bitterly disappointed to have missed out on this seat yet again. At the county elections last year, Labour’s Allan Davies won one of the two seats (Jeff won the other) but they have not won the Laindon Park borough seat since 2012. This will be a key seat for us to retain in 2019, when Cllr Andy Barnes is up for re-election. So one to watch.

Cllr Jeff Henry (Con, Laindon Park)

 

LANGDON HILLS – Ind GAIN from UKIP

 

Imelda CLANCY – 1,349 (53%) *Elected

Kevin WINGFIELD – 721 (28%)

Alexander HARRISON – 356 (14%)

Norma SAGGERS – 139 (5%)

In what was the most bitterly disappointing result of the night, ‘Independence from the EU’ councillor Imelda Clancy won the seat with an astonishing 628-vote majority over Conservative candidate Kevin Wingfield. It was a deeply frustrating result, partly because Councillor Clancy is a Pitsea resident, who has been a councillor for Pitsea North-East and is not standing for re-election there for the very good reason that she has done next to nothing for Pitsea over the past four years, but mainly because Kev is a good mate, who absolutely worked his socks off in the campaign and would have made a blinding councillor. Councillor Clancy has ridden in on the coattails of her son, Kerry Smith, who is the popular local county councillor. Unfortunately, the electors of Langdon Hills were unable to see that Imelda is not Kerry and, consequently, have deprived themselves of someone who would have worked exceptionally hard for them, in favour of someone who will just leave it all to her son. The result will be that Langdon Hills is shortchanged. But, as I said in my previous blog, there is no room for naval-gazing. The residents have spoken and we as a Conservative Party do now need to take a long, hard look in the mirror and ask ourselves how a seat we were winning with pluralities of votes and large majorities a decade ago, has now become a seat we lost in 2014, only hung on to by two votes in 2016, and lost by a large margin this year. We have lost the confidence of Langdon Hills residents and must now work to rebuild that. Mr Harrison came third again, scoring almost exactly the same result as he achieved when he stood here in 2016. But, once again, the big losers were UKIP, who came within two votes of taking Langdon Hills in 2016 but saw a catastrophic 34-point drop in their share of the vote. Considering Miss Saggers was defending the seat of the outgoing UKIP leader and self-styled heroine, Linda Allport-Hodge, that is quite a staggering defeat.

Kevin Wingfield

 

LEE CHAPEL NORTH – Lab GAIN from UKIP

 

Elaine McDONALD – 1,160 (56%) *Elected

Spencer WARNER – 369 (18%)

Frank FERGUSON – 369 (18%)

Another eminently predictable Labour gain came in Lee Chapel North, where Elaine McDonald took the seat back from incumbent UKIP councillor Frank Ferguson. Mr Ferguson took the seat in 2014 with a 41% share of the vote but on Thursday he lost the seat, coming a humiliating third behind Conservative first-time candidate, Spencer Warner. This follows a trend since 2014, whereby Labour’s Alan Bennett regained the seat in 2015 with 37% of the vote and Andrew Gordon won his seat in 2016 with 45%. The election of Councillor McDonald now means Labour are back in charge of all three Lee Chapel North seats. Young Spencer put in a very admirable showing, seeing a 2-point swing in our favour in this traditionally very safe Labour seat. Councillor McDonald has an impressive majority of 791.

Spencer Warner (centre), pictured with his parents at the count

 

 

NETHERMAYNE – Ind HOLD

 

Kerry SMITH – 2,542 (77%) *Elected

Naomi WALLACE – 433 (13%)

Sandeed SANDHU – 228 (7%)

Simon BREEDON – 84 (3%)

Well, as I predicted, ‘St Kerry of the Blessed Rock Salt’ has ascended unto glory. Kerry Smith, who won Nethermayne as UKIP in 2014, with 43% of the vote, has been re-elected as an Independent with a stonking, borderline ridiculous majority of 2,109 (the fact that this is higher than my majority in Billericay East is an irritating factoid that has already been pointed out to me by several friends, who always know how to bring a guy crashing down to earth). Councillor Smith’s share of the vote was the highest outside Billericay. This follows his staggering success in regaining the Westley Heights county division last year, with 61% of the vote. Pauline Kettle, who stood in Nethermayne in 2016 as a Smith-backed Independent, secured only a 15% vote share, so this is effectively a 62-point swing, which is incredible. Labour’s Miss Wallace came second but all the mainstream parties suffered humiliating drops in their share of the vote from 2016. Labour are down 8 points. The Conservative candidate, Sandeep Sandhu, who fought a very strong campaign and worked incredibly hard, came a very disappointing third and saw the Conservative vote share drop by 9 points. But, in their single most disastrous showing of the night, UKIP’s Simon Breedon saw the UKIP vote collapse by 24 points, scoring less than 100 votes, in what was a highly controversial campaign, during which Mr Breedon’s leaflets received negative press coverage for wrongly claiming that Councillor Smith had forced a Council meeting to move to the Sporting Village at a cost of £500,000 (the actual cost was only around £20,000). This poor result is shocking, considering UKIP won the seat in 2014, 2015 and 2016 and consequently hold the other two seats. At one point, we were calling Nethermayne the ‘first UKIP safe seat in Basildon’. That would appear to be well and truly over. But we shall have to wait until next year to know for sure. Stephen Hodge, husband of outgoing UKIP leader Linda Allport-Hodge, will be up for re-election in 2019. It remains to be seen if this was a personal vote for Councillor Smith or if he can copy his success in Langdon Hills and successfully get a candidate elected with his endorsement. Let’s just hope he’s run out of relatives to pitch at the electorate!

Sandeep Sandhu

 

 

PITSEA NORTH-WEST – Lab GAIN from UKIP

 

Jack FERGUSON – 956 (47%) *Elected

Yetunde ADESHILE – 655 (32%)

Loren HANNON – 342 (17%)

Steve HARVEY – 74 (4%)

In what was a hard-fought race, Jack Ferguson regained Pitsea North-West for Labour with a majority of 301 votes over Conservative candidate Yetunde Adeshile. Nevertheless, Councillor Ferguson saw a 12-point drop in Labour’s share of the vote from 2016, when Labour leader Gavin Callaghan retained his seat. Yetunde, meanwhile, presided over a 10-point bump in the Conservative vote. Once again, it was an ignominious defeat for UKIP, with first-time candidate Miss Hannon pushed into third place, with a 16-point drop in the UKIP vote. Meanwhile, Mr Harvey of the Democrats and Veterans Party, failed to make any impact, achieving just 74 votes. The Conservatives have not won in Pitsea North-West since 2010 and we lost our last seat there in 2014. We are re-building trust with Pitsea residents there and Yetunde has made great inroads. She is a resident of the ward and a tireless community activist, so I very much hope she will stand there for us again.

Yetunde Adeshile

 

PITSEA SOUTH-EAST (x2 seats) – Con GAIN from UKIP / Con HOLD

 

Luke MACKENZIE – 1,165 (24%) *Elected

Craig RIMMER – 1,132 (23%) *Elected

Andrew ANSELL – 1,008 (21%)

Olukayode ADENIRAN – 952 (19%)

Richard MORRIS – 283 (6%)

Lorna RICHES – 243 (5%)

John EACERSALL – 101 (2%)  

Undoubtedly the most exciting result of the night, in what had become the key battleground of the election campaign, were the two seats up for grabs in Pitsea South-East. One seat was held by UKIP’s outgoing Deputy Mayor, Stephen Ward, and the other was caused by the sad resignation of former Conservative councillor Amanda Arnold. In what must have been a blow to UKIP, Mr Ward chose to publicly endorse Democrats and Veterans candidate Mr Eacersall, who polled only 2% of the vote. UKIP, who won the seat in 2016, saw their vote collapse by 25 points. This was a two-horse race between the Conservatives and Labour. All three Pitsea South-East seats were Conservative up until 2012, when Labour’s Aidan McGurran unseated the Tory’s Ann Blake. In 2014, Tory incumbent David Abrahall lost his seat to Mr Ward. And, although Mrs Arnold held the seat for us in 2015 when former Tory Mayor Mo Larkin stood down, UKIP won the seat again in 2016. We knew the UKIP vote was likely to collapse but we did not know where those votes would go; back to us or back to Labour. Labour’s leader, Gavin Callaghan, was clearly confident of taking both seats, putting up two high profile Labour activists, Andrew Ansell and Kayode Adeniran. Likewise, on our side we put up Craig Rimmer, a very formidable political operator, and Luke Mackenzie, a former Conservative councillor for the neighbouring ward of Vange. It was the last result of the evening to be called and you could cut the atmosphere with a knife. This was where our fate would be decided. At that point, we were on 21 seats. We needed to win at least one of the seats in Pitsea South-East to take back administration. I was right at the back of the scrum, straining to hear the result, but the look on Councillor Callaghan’s face told me the result long before it finally trickled back to me. We had one BOTH seats, taking us across the line and back to a Conservative-controlled council. Luke was returned with a majority of 157 (“Mac is back!”) over his nearest Labour rival, Mr Ansell, whilst Craig was 124 votes ahead. As Craig received the smaller number of votes, he is deemed to have won the by-election and will therefore have to see re-election next year, when Amanda’s term would have ended.

Collectively, Cllrs Mackenzie and Rimmer secured 47% of the vote – an 18-point swing to us since 2016. Labour were 5 points up but not enough to carry them across the line. This result has also, subsequently, sealed the fate of Labour leader and Pitsea councillor Gavin Callaghan, who has since resigned as Leader of the Labour Group.

(L-R) Cllrs Craig Rimmer and Luke Mackenzie (Cons, Pitsea South-East)

 

 

WICKFORD CASTLEDON – Con GAIN from W’ford Ind

 

Malcolm BUCKLEY – 1,191 (59%) *Elected

Alan BALL – 566 (28%)

Louise CATLING – 278 (14%)

Alan Ball won Wickford Castledon in 2014 as UKIP but, after breaking with the rest of the UKIP Group, has sat as a ‘Wickford Independent’ since 2015. Now the man he beat, long-serving Conservative councillor Malcolm Buckley, has taken the seat back, overturning Mr Ball’s 209-vote majority. The Tory share of the vote is up 10 points since Cllr Don Morris won the other Wickford Castledon seat back in 2015. This is the first time the ‘Windies’ have fought an election in Wickford Castledon and, even in the absence of a UKIP candidate, they have failed to make the electoral breakthrough that would have enabled Mr Ball to retain his seat. The Labour share of the vote remains almost completely unchanged since the 2015 election. They are a point down. Malcolm enjoys a majority of 625 and it great to have his breadth of experience, as a former Leader of Basildon Council, back in Group.

Cllr Malcolm Buckley (Con, Wickford Castledon)

 

 

WICKFORD NORTH – Con HOLD

 

Peter HOLLIMAN – 1,682 (57%) *Elected

Eunice BROCKMAN – 1,256 (43%)

Sitting Conservative councillor Peter Holliman faced a tough challenge in Peter Holliman, due to having only one opponent, the Wickford Independents’ Mrs Brockman. We never did work out why there was no Labour candidate. It meant that Peter had to win over 51% of the vote to win and, in the event, he did it easily. Wickford North was the only seat where a Windy candidate had been tested before, as Mrs Brockman stood there in 2016 as well. While the absence of a Labour or Lib Dem candidate saw her vote share increase by 4 points, in what had been an impressive result last time round, when she was only 74 votes behind Cllr Carole Morris, it was not enough to win this time and Peter enjoys a comfortable majority of 426. This must have been a bitter pill for the Windies (evidently, given their raucous and unsportsmanlike behaviour at the count), as Peter was originally elected as UKIP, like the rest of them, but he had the good sense to see the light and come over to the Conservatives. As it stands, Peter can continue to serve his residents for a further four years, whilst the endless politicking of the Windies has got them – and the residents of Wickford – nowhere.

Cllr Peter Holliman (Con, Wickford North)

 

 

WICKFORD PARK – Con GAIN from W’ford Ind

 

George JEFFERY – 941 (48%) *Elected

David HARRISON – 750 (38%)

Patricia REID – 270 (14%)

The fate of the Wickford Independents was sealed in Wickford Park by none other than 21-year-old first-time Conservative candidate George Jeffery, who beat their leader – and the incumbent Mayor of Basildon – David Harrison with a comfortable 191-vote majority. The last time this seat was contested in 2015, Conservative incumbent Chris Jackman held the seat with 52% and a majority of 881. It has never been contested by a Windy before but, that year, the UKIP candidate, Derek Harrison (no relation, as far as I know) achieved 32%. So it is evident that Mayor Harrison’s move from UKIP to create the Windies has had a more or less negligible political impact. Labour’s share was slightly down by 2 points.

Although he lost his seat, Mayor Harrison will still chair the Annual Meeting on 24th May and remains Mayor of Basildon until a new mayor is elected by the Council at that meeting.

(L) Cllr George Jeffery (Con, Wickford Park), pictured at the count with his father

 

So, it was a night of high drama. The result is a stunning victory for the Conservative Party, who have taken back control of Basildon Council after four years in No Overall Control. It is also a personal victory for Phil Turner, our outgoing leader, who advised the Group earlier in the day that, regardless of the result, he had decided not to seek re-election as Leader of the Conservative Group, due to his belief that whomever goes forward as de facto Leader of Basildon Council will need to be able to devote much more time to the role than he is able. Phil is still a relatively young man, has a busy and demanding full-time job, and a family. The Conservative Group are enormously indebted to him for his leadership – though a difficult and fractious period – over the past four years. He led us through three years of minority administration and latterly in opposition; very difficult and demanding circumstances. We wish him well as he takes a breather on the backbenches but hopefully that he will not stay there very long and that his talents will return to a frontbench role in the not too distant future. He delivered a Conservative majority, so nobody can claim that he was ‘scalped’. Phil has retired by his own choice and on his own terms and he has my respect and admiration.

The same, of course, cannot be said for our esteemed former Chairman of the Policy & Resources Committee and self-styled ‘Leader of the Council’, Cllr Gavin Callaghan, who has gone from being de facto to defunct and slunk back off to the backbenches in ignominious defeat, having resigned as Leader of the Labour Group the day after the result. He is already busying himself on Twitter, blaming Jeremy Corbyn for his failure. While Mr Corbyn’s dismal leadership, the thuggery of his Momentum goons, and ongoing problems with rampant anti-Semitism throughout the Labour Party were all very possibly factors in Labour’s disappointing performance across the country – despite being eight years into a Conservative Government – I do not think that Councillor Callaghan can entirely absolve himself of all blame. He was confidently predicting on the BBC, just hours before the results came in, that Labour were going to have their best night in Basildon for years. He clearly thought they would pick up all the seats in Laindon and Pitsea and that he would be keeping his coalition with a now severely weakened UKIP Group, making them even more the junior partners in the alliance, and continuing his reign of terror at Basildon Council. But he is as much a victim of his own arrogance and hubris as he is the fact that Mr Corbyn is making his party fundamentally unelectable. Even in his own backyard of Pitsea, the ballot boxes coming out of Bowers Gifford told a story all of their own – of local residents’ anger at his aloof intransigence and decision to ignore their neighbourhood plan. He took his voters for granted, assuming if he just bashed Billericay enough, they would not notice his bullying approach to their own patch. He was wrong and has now paid a high political price.

Astonishingly, Cllr Kerry Smith and his mother scored a bigger share of the vote across the borough (10%) than UKIP. Overall, their vote dropped by 20% and they lost half their seats. Two more electoral cycles and they will be gone.

This election marks the end of the Wickford Independents as a presence on Basildon Council, though I dare say they shall stick around in Wickford as a minor irritant. David Harrison has been involved in Basildon politics since before I was born, so I can’t see him going anywhere. I personally doubt we shall see him back as a councillor any time soon though.

The next step now will be for the Conservative Group to hold their AGM and elect a new Leader and select our candidate for Mayor. The Conservatives secured 51% of the vote across the borough and now have a clear mandate to deliver the platform on which we were elected – to sort out the finances, deliver good services whilst keeping the Council Tax as low as possible, resist inappropriate developments in the Green Belt, crack down on enforcement, and carry on with our ambitious programme of investment, urban regeneration and economic development. The hard work starts here. But, first and foremost, a big thank you to everyone who voted for us for the faith you have placed in the Conservative Party. We won’t let you down.

Monday, April 9, 2018

Local Elections 2018

It’s that time of the year again and local elections are upon us. We have fifteen seats on Basildon Borough Council up for grabs to determine who will take charge of the Council, which has been in No Overall Control since 2014. The Council is presently led by a coalition of Labour, UKIP and Independents with the Conservatives as the Opposition. The Tories are hoping to take the Council and regain administration. There are 42 seats on Basildon Council, of which there are currently 18 Conservatives, 10 UKIP, 9 Labour, 2 Independence from EU, 2 Wickford Independents and 1 vacancy arising from the resignation, last month, of Amanda Arnold (Con, Pitsea South-East). The magic number here is 22 – this is the number of seats a party needs to command a majority on the Council. So, for the Tories, we will need to retain all our current seats and win four more to be able to form a majority administration. Here are the runners and riders locally:

 

BILLERICAY EAST

  • McCAFFERY, Susan (UKIP)
  • SCANLAN, Thomas (Labour)
  • SCHRADER, Andrew (Conservative)*

Yours truly (pictured) is seeking re-election in Billericay East. I am currently the Opposition Spokesman for Regeneration and Environment and have served on the Planning Committee for the past four years. Mr Scanlan is a first-time candidate and replaces Patricia Reid – wife of long-serving Labour election agent Malcolm Reid – who had been the perennial Labour candidate here since time immemorial but who is now a county councillor for Pitsea and, for some reason, standing Wickford Park. This year also sees the return of Miss McCaffery, a former UKIP councillor on Billericay Town Council. She retired from the Town Council a couple of years ago, so I suspect she is being fielded as a paper candidate. I was re-elected to Basildon Council in 2014 with 51% of the vote and a majority of 737, which I shall be hoping to improve.

 

BILLERICAY WEST

  • GIBBS, Philip (UKIP)
  • HEDLEY, Anthony (Conservative)*
  • REID, Malcolm (Labour)

My mate Tony Hedley (pictured) is seeking re-election in Billericay West. Tony is a serving county councillor for the Billericay and Burstead Division and has held the borough seat as well since 2001. He is a former Cabinet member on Basildon Council and chaired the Essex Fire Authority for many years. He is currently the Opposition Spokesman on Housing and Community. Dr Gibbs is an extremely eccentric choice to stand for UKIP in Billericay West and, I must admit, it’s had me scratching my head. Dr Gibbs is a well-known Langdon Hills resident and campaigner against Dunton Garden Suburb, who came within a whisker of unseating the sitting Tory councillor in Langdon Hills at the last borough elections in 2016. With the announcement that UKIP Leader Linda Allport-Hodge is not seeking re-election there, one would have thought Dr Gibbs would be the obvious choice to succeed her. Quite what has possessed him to pitch up in Billericay West against a popular, long-serving incumbent, considering his leader was instrumental in passing a deeply unpopular Local Plan, is anyone’s guess. Mr Reid, as mentioned before, is the Labour election agent, who tends to pop up all over the place during elections as a paper candidate for seats Labour do not expect to win. Tony is defending a majority of 1,044 (58% share of the vote in 2014).

 

BURSTEAD

  • BAGGOTT, Andrew (Conservative)*
  • BENNETT, Santa (Labour)
  • HOUGHTON, David (UKIP)

Andy Baggott (pictured) is seeking re-election in Burstead, having won the seat in 2014. He currently serves on the Infrastructure, Growth and Development Committee and was a prominent critic of Linda Allport-Hodge and her chairmanship and of the Draft Local Plan. Mrs Bennett is the wife of sitting Labour councillor for Lee Chapel North, Alan Bennett, and is another perennial Labour paper candidate. Mr Houghton is a first-time candidate for UKIP. Andy is defending a majority of 866 (55% of the vote in 2014).

 

CROUCH

  • MUYLDERS, Sally (Labour)
  • PIPER, Kevin (UKIP)
  • SARGENT, Terri (Conservative)*

 

Terri Sargent (pictured) is seeking re-election in Crouch. She has been the local councillor since 2002 and is a former Cabinet member. Terri currently serves on the Audit and Risk Committee and the Regeneration and Environment Committee. Mrs Muylders is standing in Crouch again for Labour, having done so in 2016. Mr Piper previously stood for UKIP in Burstead. Terri is defending a majority of 120 (47%). That was in 2014, the year UKIP swept everything outside of Billericay. In 2016, her ward colleague, Stuart Allen, held his seat with a majority of 479 (54%) and my prediction is, if UKIP couldn’t oust Terri in 2014, they certainly aren’t going to do it now; not when UKIP’s vote is collapsing, and they just forced through a massively unpopular Local Plan.

 

FRYERNS

  • ALLEN, Christopher (Conservative)
  • KIRKMAN, David (Labour)
  • SHEPPARD, David (UKIP)*

UKIP’s David Sheppard is defending this traditionally staunch Labour seat in Basildon New Town. He currently serves on the Housing and Community Committee and the Licensing Committee and has been Vice-Chairman of the Planning Committee under his Labour ward colleague, Adele Brown, since UKIP joined in a coalition with the Labour Group. I doubt this will save him, however, and Labour are pitting against him Basildon’s very own ‘Red Prince’, David Kirkman, son of former Labour council leader Paul Kirkman. Kirkman Jr is a former councillor for Fryerns and this will be a seat worth watching. My little birds tell me that a promising Blairite was being groomed for this seat by Basildon Labour Leader and self-styled ‘de facto Leader of the Council’, Gavin Callaghan, but Momentum have infiltrated the Basildon Labour Party and installed Mr Kirkman, who was forced out in 2011 (in favour of Mrs Brown). At the time, Labour blamed his “poor” public speaking and casework but Mr Kirkman alleged he was forced because of his mental health problems and even prevailed upon prominent mental health advocate Alistair Campbell for support. In recent years, Mr Kirkman has only been permitted to stand as a paper candidate in Burstead. His appearance now as a candidate in an eminently winnable seat like Fryerns can only signal a weakening of Chairman Gav’s control of his local CLP. Our candidate, Chris Allen (pictured), will be seeking to throw a spanner in the works either way.

Councillor Sheppard won the seat in 2014, ousting Labour stalwart, the late Bill Archibald, in the year UKIP swept everything outside of Billericay. He is defending a majority of 216 (43%) but, in 2016, Councillor Brown retained her seat with a majority of 212 against UKIP’s Rhyan Waine and her Labour ward colleague, Allan Davies, also held the seat in 2015. So it doesn’t look good for Councillor Sheppard.

 

LAINDON PARK

  • CONROY, Mark (UKIP)
  • HENRY, Jeff (Conservative)
  • ZWENGUNDE, Clarence (Labour)

UKIP’s Mark Ellis took this seat in 2014, when he unseated Tory incumbent John Dornan, and was at one time Deputy Leader of the UKIP Group, but Mr Ellis has chosen not to seek re-election, having moved out of the borough and, apparently, had a major bust-up with his erstwhile party colleagues. First-time candidate Mr Conroy will be seeking to retain the seat for UKIP and defend their 237-vote majority, having previously been the unsuccessful UKIP candidate in Wickford Crouch at the Essex County Council elections last year. Laindon Park is very much a ‘marginal seat’, having returned Tory Andy Barnes in 2015 (General Election year), reverted to UKIP when it elected Hazel Green in 2016 and, in a by-election for the county seat later that year (to replace the late Bill Archibald), rejected Labour’s Gavin Callaghan in favour of UKIP’s Frank Ferguson. But, at last year’s county elections, Councillor Ferguson lost the county seat and the two-member division (which includes Fryerns ward) returned Jeff Henry (pictured) for one seat and Labour’s Allan Davies for the other, with Jeff coming top of the poll (42 votes ahead of Councillor Davies). Jeff will be hoping to repeat that success in the borough seat. Meanwhile, Labour’s candidate, Mr Zwengunde, is something of an enigma. Having stood in 2016 as an ‘Independent’ in Lee Chapel North, I gather on a platform of bringing a grammar school to Basildon, he has now taken the curious decision to stand for Labour; the only party in the borough that opposes grammar schools! Make of that what you will.

 

LANGDON HILLS

  • CLANCY, Imelda (Independent)
  • HARRISON, Alexander (Labour)
  • SAGGERS, Norma (UKIP)
  • WINGFIELD, Kevin (Conservative)

UKIP Group Leader and architect of the Local Plan, Linda Allport-Hodge, is not seeking re-election in Langdon Hills, in what must be the political equivalent of a ‘mic-drop’. She won the seat from Tory Sandra Hillier in 2014, with a majority of just 75 votes. I must say, as satisfying as it would have been to see her lose the seat, it is good to know that, whatever happens, she is gone. She has been a nightmare on the Council, is frankly a foul-mouthed odious woman, and I for one will never forgive her for the pig’s breakfast she has made of the Local Plan, which even she concedes will “ruin the town”. Good riddance. What remains to be seen is what will now happen in Langdon Hills. I think the first thing to acknowledge is that this ward, which was a previously safe Tory seat, has now become extremely marginal and the Conservative Party need to recognise that and listen to the concerns of Langdon Hills residents. Stephen Hillier held the seat for the Conservatives in 2016 by just two votes! As the Conservative candidate, Kevin Wingfield (pictured) is a young, independent-minded guy, who feels passionately about his local community. He has lived in Langdon Hills almost his entire life and is committed to reconnecting with Langdon Hills residents and rebuilding that bond of trust between them and the Conservatives.

I have already mentioned earlier that UKIP have, curiously, decided not to stand previous candidate Philip Gibbs here, instead putting him up in Billericay West. The UKIP candidate in Langdon Hills will be Laindon resident Miss Saggers. Local ‘Kippers are calling her a ‘long-standing local campaigner’ but, in eight years of being active in local politics (and for much of that time I lived in Langdon Hills), I have never heard of her. I think if you listen carefully, you can hear the bottom of a barrel being scraped. Not sure what Dr Gibbs did to deserve being exiled to the outer-darkness of Billericay West but it must have been bad! Anyway, Mr Harrison is standing here again for Labour but it looks like the main contest is going to be between Kevin and Councillor Clancy.

Pitsea resident Councillor Clancy is none other than the mother of Nethermayne councillor Kerry Smith and currently a sitting councillor herself in Pitsea North-West, which she won as a ‘Kipper in 2014. Cllrs Clancy and Smith are now both ‘Independents’ following Kerry’s ignominious departure as Leader of the UKIP Group. Unfortunately, during the course of her four-year term in Pitsea, Councillor Clancy has – how can I say this politely? – not been a particularly ‘active’ councillor and she clearly doesn’t rate her chances of being re-elected there, so she is doing the chicken run to Langdon Hills, where she is obviously hoping to ride her son’s coat-tails back into office. As the county member for Westley Heights, which includes Langdon Hills, Councillor Smith has an impressive following in the area and won re-election to the county seat last year with an incredible 61% share of the vote. In fairness to him, Kerry does put on a pretty good show of looking busy and seeming to get things done (looks, of course, can be deceiving). His mother, alas, does not and her outburst at the Local Plan meeting, advising her son to “just ignore” residents hardly bodes well. But clearly Kerry is hoping to go into the ‘franchising’ business and reckons he can get his mum back in on his endorsement alone. Fair play to him, it’ll be most impressive if he does! But the residents of Langdon Hills will be short-changed with a councillor who is already the county member and a borough member for another ward effectively covering for his mother. I think Langdon Hills deserves a councillor dedicated to them and them alone and I hope they will support Kevin Wingfield.

 

LEE CHAPEL NORTH

  • FERGUSON, Frank (UKIP)*
  • McDONALD, Elaine (Labour)
  • WARNER, Spencer (Conservative)

UKIP’s Frank Ferguson is, like his colleague David Sheppard, defending a traditionally safe Labour Basildon New Town seat. He has been a leading member of the Labour/UKIP coalition, serving as a Vice-Chairman of two committees; Licensing and Regeneration & Environment. He won the seat in 2014 with a majority of 61 over his Labour predecessor, Alan Bennett, but in 2015 Councillor Bennett regained the seat and in 2016 Labour won it again with a majority of 189, so I think we are likely to have seen the last of Councillor Ferguson’s garish jackets, lurid shirts and vivid ties. Curiously, for such an eminently winnable Labour seat, I have never heard of the Labour candidate, Miss McDonald, but a cursory perusal of her Facebook page reveals her to be a particularly virulent Corbynite (with a strange obsession with Maureen Lipman!), suggesting another victory for Momentum against the Blairite Gavin Callaghan. The Conservatives have, in Spencer Warner (pictured), a fantastic, young, and enthusiastic candidate. Spencer is a first-time candidate and, at 23, is bursting with positivity and energy. He deserves to win, even though history suggests he probably won’t. But you never know.

 

NETHERMAYNE

  • BREEDON, Simon (UKIP)
  • SANDHU, Sandeep (Conservative)
  • SMITH, Kerry (Independent)*
  • WALLACE, Naomi (Labour)

Kerry Smith is the incumbent Independent councillor who now effectively rules over this previously staunch Lib Dem fortress like an unassailable potentate. I call him ‘St Kerry of the Blessed Rock Salt’ because he performed a miracle – he took two tonnes of rock salt and turned every grain into a vote for him and his constituents seem to think he can walk on water. Kerry has replaced his predecessor, Geoff Williams, Lib Dem Councillor for Nethermayne for over thirty years, in more way than one. He hasn’t just succeeded him to the seat; like dear old ‘Uncle Geoff’, he has also turned it into his personal fiefdom. If I sound bitchy, I don’t mean to be. I am genuinely in awe of him. Kerry was elected in 2014 with a stonking 640-vote majority (43%) of the vote, beating Geoff’s son, Ben Williams, who had previously been a Nethermayne councillor himself. Kerry had worked the ward like a Trojan and, following his election, became the UKIP Group Leader on Basildon Council, until his fall from grace later in the year. Since then, he has sat as an Independent and has made the seat his own. Although written off by many (including yours truly), who couldn’t believe he could win re-election as an Independent, he was re-elected to the county seat last year with a massive majority of 2,012 (61%) over the poor drongo we stood against him. But he sold his soul (and his vote) to Labour and UKIP to help them form the coalition now running Basildon Council. Councillor Smith fifty pieces of silver came in the form of the Chairmanship of the Housing and Community Committee. He sits with his mother, Cllr Imelda Clancy (Ind, Pitsea North-West), as the ‘Independence from the EU Group’, which also entitles him to a stipend as a ‘group leader’.

In 2015 and 2016, Nethermayne went to UKIP but I have little doubt that Kerry will see off Mr Breedon (who was an unsuccessful UKIP candidate for the Pitsea county seat last year). Labour are fielding Miss Wallace, whom I’ve never heard of and she’s clearly such a dynamic character that in the latest Labour leaflet, they cut her out. Our candidate, Sandeep Sandhu (pictured), is another first-time candidate seeking to replenish the Tory ranks. I wish him the best of luck and know from bitter recent personal experience that he will need it.

 

PITSEA NORTH-WEST

  • ADESHILE, Yetunde (Conservative)
  • FERGUSON, Jack (Labour)
  • HANNON, Loren (UKIP)
  • HARVEY, Steve (DVP)

As mentioned earlier, the incumbent Independent councillor, Imelda Clancy, is doing the chicken run to Langdon Hills. She was elected as a ‘Kipper in 2014, with a majority of 250, but has sat for most of her term as part of the ‘Independence from the EU Group’, led by her son, Cllr Kerry Smith (Ind, Nethermayne). I’m afraid I don’t know anything about the UKIP candidate, Miss Hannon, but Jack Ferguson was the Labour candidate for Westley Heights in the county elections last year and previously stood as a paper candidate in Billericay West. Mr Harvey is representing our newest political party, the rather eccentric ‘Democrats and Veterans Party’, which is led by an ex-‘Kipper who once accused a “homosexual donkey” of trying to rape his horse. Our candidate is Yetunde Adeshile (pictured), a local community activist, who would lend a strong voice to Pitsea in the council chamber. UKIP won the seat again in 2015 but, in 2016, Labour’s Gavin Callaghan won re-election with a majority of 235. The ward has previously been held by the Tories, so I guess we shall have to see if the UKIP vote continues to collapse and, if so, where that vote goes.

 

PITSEA SOUTH-EAST (x2)

  • ADENIRAN, Olukayode (Labour)
  • ANSELL, Andrew (Labour)
  • EACERSALL, John (DVP)
  • MACKENZIE, Luke (Conservative)
  • MORRIS, Richard (UKIP)
  • RICHES, Lorna (UKIP)
  • RIMMER, Craig (Conservative)

There are two vacancies this year in Pitsea South-East. UKIP former Deputy Mayor, Stephen Ward, has decided not to seek re-election (indeed, he attended the launch of the Democrats and Veterans Party, so it is unclear if he is even still a supporter of UKIP). But, having suffered a stroke during his term, his retirement is not unexpected. He won the seat in 2014, beating Tory incumbent David Abrahall, with a majority of 95. The second vacancy arises in consequence of the sad resignation of Amanda Arnold, who held the seat for the Conservatives in 2015 with a majority of 204, following the retirement of former Mayor Mo Larkin. Since Amanda’s election, the seat was won by UKIP again in 2016 and on that occasion the Tories came third. At the county elections last year, the Pitsea Division (which includes both Pitsea North-West and South-East) elected two councillors. One seat was won by Tory Stephen Hillier and the other by Labour’s Pat Reid. So, there is everything to play for in this seat. Mr Adeniran is contesting the seat for Labour a second time, while Mr Ansell previously stood as a paper candidate in Billericay West. Richard Morris and Lorna Riches (about whom I know nothing) are standing for UKIP and Mr Eacersall is the DVP offering. DVP are only fielding one candidate, presumably because they did not have time to recruit a second one to stand in the by-election. Our candidates are former councillor Luke Mackenzie (pictured above), who represented Vange from 2008 to 2012, and Craig Rimmer (pictured right), both highly experienced political operatives, who would make excellent and hard-working councillors for Pitsea South-East.

 

WICKFORD CASTLEDON

  • BALL, Alan (Wickford Independent)*
  • BUCKLEY, Malcolm (Conservative)
  • CATLING, Louise (Labour)

Alan Ball is the incumbent Wickford Independent councillor, who was originally elected as UKIP, having previously failed several times to get elected as an independent on an anti-development ‘Wickford Action Group’ ticket. In 2014, he won a majority of 209 (49%) over Tory Malcolm Buckley (pictured) but, along with the other three Wickford ‘Kippers elected in 2014, broke away from the rest of the UKIP Group in 2015 to form ‘Wickford UKIP’, only to then be expelled by UKIP nationally and form the so-called ‘Wickford Independents’. Since the formation of the coalition governing Basildon Council last year, Councillor Ball has served as Chairman of the Regeneration and Environment Committee. Unfortunately for Councillor Ball, Buckley is back! Throughout the past four years since Malcolm lost his seat, he has continued to serve the residents of Wickford in his capacity as County Councillor for the Wickford Crouch Division, to which he was re-elected last year. Malcolm, a former Leader of Basildon Council, is now ready to come back onto the borough council and is seeking to oust Councillor Ball. Miss Catling, who was Labour’s candidate in Wickford Crouch last year, is standing for Labour again here in Wickford Castledon.

 

WICKFORD NORTH

  • BROCKMAN, Eunice (Wickford Independent)
  • HOLLIMAN, Peter (Conservative)*

Peter Holliman (pictured) is seeking re-election in Wickford North. Peter has been on something of a political odyssey, having been one of the three Wickford ‘Kippers elected in 2014 with a majority of 130 (45%) and unseating the then Conservative Leader and Leader of the Council, Tony Ball, in what was one of the most dramatic upsets of the night. Peter, however, unlike Alan Ball and David Harrison, the other two Wickford ‘Kippers, had never sought election before and was not connected to the Wickford Action Group. When the Wickford ‘Kippers broke away from the main UKIP Group, he briefly served as Leader, and then as Leader of the Wickford Independents, before being side-lined by David Harrison. Mayor Harrison calls the Wickford Independents ‘Free from Party Politics’, which of course means they are deeply and frenetically political. Eventually, tired of the antics of the ‘Windies’ (as they have become known), Peter crossed the floor to the Conservative Group and was warmly welcomed as someone genuinely free of partisan sentiment and not interested in the political scheming of Mayor Harrison.

Peter is defending a challenge from his erstwhile party colleagues, in the form of perennial ‘Windy’ (former ‘Kipper) candidate, Eunice Brockman. There has been much speculation as to why there is no Labour candidate in Wickford North – the only seat in which they are not fielding a candidate – with conspiracy theories abounding about possible deals to give the Windies a free run (but such a deal, if agreed, would surely have applied to Mayor Harrison’s seat in Wickford Park). I suspect the more likely reason is that they fluffed their nomination papers for one reason or another but submitted them too late to do anything about it. [I happen to have it on good authority that the other parties were all exceptionally late in submitting their paperwork.]

 

WICKFORD PARK

  • HARRISON, David (Wickford Independents)*
  • JEFFERY, George (Conservative)
  • REID, Patricia (Labour)

His Worship the Mayor, David Harrison, is seeking re-election in Wickford Park. In addition to currently serving as Mayor under the Labour/UKIP coalition, he is also the Leader of the Wickford Independents. Mayor Harrison was originally a Labour councillor and a former Chairman of the old Basildon District Council – way back in the mists of time – and seems to have been a ideological nomad all his political life. Having fallen out with Labour, he has, by turns, been a Tory, a Liberal, a ‘Pensioner Concern Party’ candidate, an Independent, a ‘Wickford Action Group’ candidate, but he finally won a seat back in 2014 when he was elected as UKIP with a majority of 53 (45%) over Tory Don Morris. Throughout his four years on Basildon Council, however, Mayor Harrison has been a bit of a ‘renegade’, routinely defying the UKIP leadership under both Kerry Smith and Linda Allport-Hodge and, later in 2014, he and the other two Wickford ‘Kippers broke away to form ‘Wickford UKIP’ and, as previously stated, got thrown out of UKIP altogether and formed the Wickford Independents (or ‘Windies’).

Since then, Mayor Harrison has played a pretty formidable game of manipulation and horse-trading with the various parties. With the Council being in No Overall Control, ‘independents’ like him and that other ex-‘Kipper, Kerry Smith, have lost no opportunity to exploit the desire of other parties to leverage his vote. Finally, in exchange for a gold chain, he got into bed with Labour and UKIP. He is facing a challenge from our candidate, George Jeffery (pictured), who at just 21 is almost certainly the youngest candidate in the election and is full of new ideas and youthful vigour. Meanwhile, Labour have plucked Pat Reid – formerly a perennial paper candidate in Billericay East but elected to Essex County Council last year in the Pitsea Division – and plonked her in Wickford Park, for reasons best known to themselves. This one is a straight two-horse race between George and the Mayor.

 

TRIVIA

The Conservative Party are the ONLY party fielding candidates in EVERY ward, all over the Borough.

For the first time to my knowledge, there are no Liberal Democrat candidates anywhere in the Borough. Their infrastructure in the Borough just seems to have completely disintegrated. Even Ben Williams is not standing in Nethermayne. The short-lived Green Party slate from 2016 has also failed to re-emerge, indicating that Phil Rackley too has given up his ambitions to return to the Council. (Just as well, as he would not have approved of the new £400K chamber at all!)

This may be the first year I can remember that we do not have a single councillor’s spouse standing. We have one son of a former councillor: David Kirkman, Labour candidate in Fryerns, is the son of Paul Kirkman, a former Labour Leader of the Council. Husband and wife team Malcolm and Pat Reid are both candidates.

We have three former councillors seeking to re-join the Council: Mr Kirkman (Lab, Fryerns) and Luke Mackenzie (Con, Pitsea South-East) and Malcolm Buckley (Con, Wickford Castledon).

We have approximately fourteen first-time candidates.

There are also four retiring councillors this year – Cllrs Linda Allport-Hodge (UKIP, Langdon Hills), Mark Ellis (UKIP, Laindon Park) and Stephen Ward (UKIP, Pitsea South-East) and of course Amanda Arnold (Con, Pitsea South-East), who has already resigned from the Council. All were from the 2014 intake, with the exception of Mrs Arnold, who was elected in 2015 and who would have been up for re-election next year in the normal course of events. It will now be the case that whichever of the two winners of the Pitsea South-East seats up this year has the least votes, they will have to fight re-election again next year when Mrs Arnold’s term would have been up.

Monday, June 26, 2017

The Queen's Sapphire Jubilee

On Friday 23rd June, I was deeply proud to be the keynote speaker at a special dinner held by the Rochford & Southend East Conservative Women’s Organisation in honour of the Sapphire Jubilee of Her Majesty the Queen. Below is a transcript of my speech.


“Thank you, ladies & gentlemen, for that very warm welcome. It gives me great pleasure to be here this evening but, of course, none of you are really here for me. We are all here for one very special person and that person is Her Majesty the Queen, who this year marks Her Sapphire Jubilee; an unprecedented 65 years as Queen of the United Kingdom and Her other realms and territories.

She is currently Sovereign of 12 countries, though that number has fluctuated during Her long reign, with many former possessions now republics. She is the first British monarch ever to celebrate a Sapphire Jubilee and is now, at 91 years of age, the oldest reigning monarch in the world and both our longest-lived and longest-serving British monarch, having surpassed her great-great-grandmother, Queen Victoria, in 2015. Indeed, since the death of King Rama IX of Thailand last year, She is now the longest-serving Head of State anywhere in the world.

I am a borough councillor in Basildon but I am here tonight in my capacity as an avowed monarchist, loyal subject, and all-round royal nerd. But before we get on to the particulars of Her Majesty’s reign, let me just say that I make a distinction between being a mere ‘royalist’ and being a ‘monarchist’. Royalists tend to be people who romanticise the Royal Family. I think of them as ‘groupies’ for royalty and, as it happens, I am probably one of those as well but, more importantly, I am a ‘constitutional monarchist’. That is to say, in addition to a general romanticism about royalty, I hold a sincere belief in the institution of the Crown as a system of government. Sir Winston Churchill once said, “Democracy is the worst form of government except for all those that have been tried from time to time” and if that is true then a constitutional monarchy operating as part of a pluralistic representative parliamentary democracy is without doubt the most glorious expression of that particular ‘least worst option’.

Republicans – with whom I have to say I have little sympathy – tend to dismiss monarchy as some kind of antiquated ‘lottery’, relying on a mere ‘accident of birth’ to provide us with a Head of State, and maybe that is true but Britain last played the regal lottery in 1952 and won handsomely and we have not had to gamble again since. In that same expanse of time, how many different presidents have been elected among the world’s republics and how many of those were even remotely memorable? Very few.

Princess Elizabeth Alexandra Mary of York was born by Caesarean section on 21st April 1926 at 17 Bruton Street, Mayfair – in a house that no longer exists. It was the London townhouse of Scottish aristocrat, the 14th Earl of Strathmore and Kinghorne. Princess Elizabeth was the daughter of HRH Prince Albert, Duke of York (known as ‘Bertie’), second son of King George V, and Her mother was the former Lady Elizabeth Bowes-Lyon, daughter of Lord Strathmore. The Home Secretary, Sir William Joynson-Hicks, in accordance with long-standing tradition, was present for the birth – a custom dating back to the ‘Warming Pan Scandal’ of 1688, when the son of the unpopular King James II was rumoured to be an imposter, smuggled into the bedchamber inside a warming pan by a chambermaid

I am sorry to have to tell you, 1926 was the last time a Home Secretary was present to verify a royal birth – in what I suspect must have been a relief for Theresa May in 2013, at the birth of Prince George.

Princess Elizabeth’s paternal grandfather, King George V, whom She lovingly referred to as ‘Grandpa England’ and who called Her ‘Lilibet’, was then in the sixteenth year of his reign and in ailing health, suffering from COPD and pleurisy. During his serious illness in 1929, it was the regular visits from his three-year-old granddaughter rather than his convalescence in Bognor, that was widely credited with aiding his recovery. But, of course, he never fully recovered and it was on his eventual death (he was actually euthanised) in 1936 that the story of Queen Elizabeth II really begins.

1936 was the Year of Three Kings. King George V died and was succeeded by his eldest son and heir, the Prince of Wales – Princess Elizabeth’s dashing ‘Uncle David’ – who became King Edward VIII. The new king had always been a rather louche character, who had an awkward relationship with his strict disciplinarian father, who was always appalled by his son’s affairs with married women, most notably the American socialite Wallis Simpson. The late King George had prophetically stated, “After I am dead, the boy will ruin himself in 12 months”. He also said, “I pray to God that my eldest son will never marry and have children, and that nothing will come between Bertie and Lilibet and the throne”. And so it proved to be. When Mrs Simpson divorced her second husband, King Edward determined to marry her over the objections of the British and Dominion governments and, in December that year, abdicated in favour of his younger brother, who succeeded as King George VI. 

 Her father’s accession to the throne made Princess Elizabeth the Heiress Presumptive, which for a 10-year-old girl must have been quite a mind-bender. Famously, shortly after their father became King, Princess Elizabeth and Her six-year-old sister, Princess Margaret, were perusing the Line of Succession and, realising her elder sister’s position, Princess Margaret asked, “Does that mean you will have to be the next queen?” To which Princess Elizabeth replied, “Yes, someday”. At which Princess Margaret declared, “Poor you”. From that point onwards, this young girl was groomed for Her eventually succession. She was tutored on the Constitution by the Vice-Provost of Eton, She learned French fluently. Unlike modern royal children, who attend posh schools, Princess Elizabeth was educated within the confines of Buckingham Palace by royal governesses.

In 1939, the Second World War broke out and London was blitzed by the Luftwaffe. Many of London’s children were evacuated and it was suggested that the princesses should be sent to Canada but their mother, the redoubtable Queen Elizabeth, steadfastly refused, saying “The children won’t go without me. I won’t leave without the King. And the King will never leave”. So, instead, Princess Elizabeth and Her sister spent the war first at Balmoral, then Sandringham, and for most of the last five years until 1945 at Windsor Castle. The Princess was involved in the war effort, famously broadcasting with Her little sister on the BBC’s “Children’s Hour”, addressing all the child evacuees. In 1942, the 16-year-old Princess Elizabeth became Colonel of the Grenadier Guards. She became a Counsellor of State on her 18th birthday and in 1945 joined the Women’s Auxiliary Territorial Service, where She learned to drive and trained as a mechanic. Famously, She and Princess Margaret mingled incognito outside the gates of Buckingham Palace on VE Day.

The Second World War had broken Her father’s health. King George VI was a quiet, diffident, unassuming man, who had never expected or wanted to be king but who ended up, following his brother’s abdication, being called upon to lead his country during one of the most perilous and trying periods in our island history, despite all his self-doubt and – as anyone who has seen that marvellous film “The King’s Speech” will be aware, crippled by a debilitating stammer, that made any kind of public speaking absolute torture. Nevertheless, with a spirit undaunted, he led his country through its darkest days, visiting the decimated homesteads of his capital with his loyal Queen at his side.

Whenever we think of World War II, we immediately think of Sir Winston Churchill and his great rallying, buoying speeches, assuring the public of the ultimate victory. Reassuring everyone, that is, except the King. One of the monarch’s primary constitutional functions is to act as a sounding board for the Prime Minister of the day. Because the Sovereign is the one person who is not grubbing for the PM’s job, they are the one person in whom prime ministers can confide their innermost thoughts, and fears. And Sir Winston did that. When he was terrified of the deadly effectiveness of the U-boats, when it looked like we were on the cusp of being defeated in the Battle of Britain, every niggling doubt, every pang of fear that Sir Winston felt, which was suppressed in him and hidden from public view, was poured forth and shared with the King. It was a vital catharsis for Sir Winston but must have had a devastating effect on the poor King’s already delicate nerves. The King chain-smoked his way through those dark days and, by 1951, he had terminal lung cancer – a fact that was kept from him by his doctors. Princess Elizabeth was increasingly helping to shoulder the burden of Her father’s public duties, undertaking a tour of the Commonwealth in 1947. It was in southern Africa, on the occasion of Her 21st birthday, that She famously pledged, “I declare before you all that my whole life, whether it be long or short, shall be devoted to your service…” And so She has.

Her beloved father, to whom She was totally devoted, died in his sleep at Sandringham on 6th February 1952. The new Queen was on another Commonwealth tour at the time, and was staying in a tree house in Kenya when She learned that She had acceded to the throne. She was accompanied, of course, by her husband – HRH The Duke of Edinburgh, the former Prince Philip of Greece – whom She had married in 1947, having first met him in 1934 at a family wedding. She saw him again in 1939 when he was a dashingly handsome young naval cadet at Dartmouth and She was but an 13-year-old girl. She was accompanying Her parents, who were visiting the Royal Naval College and was immediately smitten with the 18-year-old sailor and, to the best of anyone’s knowledge, has never loved anyone else in Her entire life. The two wrote to each other throughout the Prince’s noble wartime service in the Royal Navy – including active service in the Mediterranean, during which he saw action in the Battle of Crete, was mentioned in dispatches during the Battle of Cape Matapan, took part in the Allied invasion of Sicily, and was present for the Japanese surrender in Tokyo Bay. The young, infatuated Princess Elizabeth kept a photograph of the Prince on her mantelpiece. When her governess, Marion Crawford, suggested it wasn’t a good idea as it might prompt gossip, the Princess undertook to remove the portrait. A short time later, Miss Crawford returned to find that the picture had indeed been removed and replaced by a new photograph of the Prince in uniform, sporting a full set of naval whiskers. “There you are, Crawfie,” said Princess Elizabeth. “I challenge anyone to recognise him now!”

Despite some initial reluctance on Her parents’ part, and some snobbishness within the British Establishment, the Queen and Prince Philip were married and their marriage has been an exceptionally long and happy one. After 70 years together, they will celebrate their Platinum Wedding Anniversary in November this year. As She declared on their Golden Wedding Anniversary in 1997, Prince Philip has been Her “Strength and stay”. They have four children, eight grandchildren, and five great-grandchildren.

I am reluctant to talk in too much more detail about events after 1945 because, if you are watching “The Crown” on Netflix – and if you have not then I would strongly urge you to do so – I would not want to ruin it for you! But suffice it to say, the Queen came to the throne as a tender girl aged just 25. She is now 91 and, in all that time, has barely ever put a foot wrong. This Sapphire Jubilee adds yet another remarkable milestone to the list of milestones achieved during the long reign of our remarkable Queen. For those of us who have grown up during Her reign and have known no other monarch – which is probably most of us in this room! – She is the embodiment of selfless devotion, dutifulness, dignity, and a calm unflappable Britishness. Her steady leadership – I was about to say ‘strong and stable’ but thought better of it! – has provided all of us with an invaluable sense of continuity and security. In an ever-changing world, She has been constant as the Northern Star. She has weathered dramatic political, social, and technological changes with incredible poise and stoicism. The Queen is governed, not by divine right but by a divine vocation and we are very, very lucky to have Her.”

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

Why I shall vote to leave the EU

I have thought long and hard about the momentous decision that faces our nation on Thursday. Not particularly about how I am going to vote, for I have known that with a fair degree of certainty for well over a decade. Rather, I have agonised over whether or not I wanted to blog on the subject of my decision.

In part at least, I suppose my reticence has been down to the fact that, ultimately, my vote will be but one of many and you will all have your own vote too, so why should it matter to any of you how I vote? But, as a councillor, I have – perhaps inevitably – had a lot of people approach me to ask my opinion. Mostly, I suspect this is because many people feel ill equipped to make such an important decision and many have reported to me that they do not feel in possession of sufficient facts and reliable information and are asking me my opinion precisely because I am involved in politics and they assume I will be able to offer some insight.

This leads me to the other reason I have been reluctant to weigh heavily into the debate. I feel sure we can all agree, the tone struck by each of the two EU referendum campaigns has been universally diabolical. Your point of view may lead you to feel that one side has been worse than the other but neither side has exactly covered themselves in glory, in fact they have both behaved atrociously for the most part, producing more heat than light. The debate has been characterised by claim versus counter-claim, misinformation, some outright lies, and self-interested propaganda, with each side impugning the motivations of the other. It has been pretty unedifying and I have not really wanted to get too involved. I was approached about being a campaign organiser for the constituency but I declined. I already knew how I was going to vote, so I was content to let people make up their own minds without any input from me. But I feel I must now, finally, publicly set out my position.

There is no doubt whatever that the referendum on our membership of the European Union is the single most vitally important decision all of us, as electors, will be asked to make in our lifetimes. Some of you may have been around forty years ago for the 1975 referendum on membership of the what was then called the ‘European Economic Community’ but for a lot of us, including me, this is the first time we have ever been directly consulted on our relationship with Europe and now, thanks to a manifesto commitment delivered by the Conservative Party, we will all finally get to have our say. Special thanks should go, at this point, to our local MP, John Baron, for the central role he played in leading the parliamentary campaign to secure the referendum.

Given what is at stake in this referendum, and how long I have waited for it, I would have expected to be at the epicentre of it. Although I have not always felt a particularly trenchant animus against the EU, it would be fair to say that I am a lifelong Eurosceptic. As a libertarian by inclination, I tend toward a healthy scepticism of all big state apparatus – and they scarcely come much bigger or more statist than the Brussels bureaucracy. I started off life, as a young university student studying politics in the early 2000s, as a relatively mild critic of the EU but one who was, nevertheless, broadly favouring our continued membership. As the years have rolled by, I have become progressively more and more despairing of EU institutions. I have become appalled by the rampant corruption, insatiable avarice, colossal waste, incompetence, protectionism, megalomaniacal levels of interference, shocking arrogance, and imperious disregard for even a pretence of democratic accountability displayed by the various organs of the monolithic EU behemoth. By the time I graduated in 2003, I had pretty much made up my mind that, if I ever got the chance, I would undoubtedly vote to leave the EU.

Now, that being said, I would probably have been open to the idea of voting to remain if the Prime Minister’s renegotiation had yielded a deal that showed Brussels was prepared to consider seriously the case for meaningful reform of the way the EU works. What the Prime Minister came back with, however, was a derisory fig leaf, which paid lip service to reform but really made it clear that the EU is utterly intransigent. It was not worth the paper it was printed on. There is, therefore, no such thing as a ‘qualified’ vote to remain in this referendum. Any vote to stay in the EU, no matter how narrow, will be interpreted in Brussels as wholesale endorsement and as a signal of Britain’s ultimate acceptance of the entire EU project – and the Five Presidents Report makes the ultimate mission for full monetary and political union absolutely clear. Anyone who imagines that we can vote to remain in the EU and then reform it from within is willfully ignoring the experience of the last twenty-five years. If Brussels were not prepared to make any serious concessions even with the threat of a referendum and potential Brexit looming, they will certainly never agree to anything once we have voted to stay in the EU. At that point, Brussels will know that the British have no bottle. The Prime Minister’s renegotiation was the last chance for the EU to change for the better and they fudged it. We simply cannot ignore such immovability.

I have a lot of sympathy for those people who feel there has been a lack of impartial information on what will happen if we leave. This situation was certainly not helped by the fact that the Prime Minister spent £9m of our money on a scaremongering propaganda sheet for the Stronger In campaign. Of course, the simple fact is that there is not a great deal of information about what will and will not happen because nobody has ever left the EU before. This has caused Stronger In to try and characterise Brexit as “a leap in the dark” but I refuse to subscribe to ‘Project Fear’. Fundamentally, I believe in Britain. I believe we CAN and WILL carve out a bigger, brighter future for ourselves if we vote Leave and take back control. I am absolutely firm in my conviction that a United Kingdom outside of the EU can and will be successful and economically prosperous – because, frankly, if we cannot do it, then no-one can.

The UK is the fifth largest economy in the world, a permanent member of the UN Security Council, a leading member of both the G8 and the G20, has one of the largest militaries in the world, we have the best universities, our citizens have won more Nobel Prizes than any other European country, not to mention a long and distinguished history as one of the greatest maritime trading nations in the history of the world. I really resent the way the Stronger In campaign has talked this country down. Do not misunderstand me, I think both campaigns have been pretty shoddy and the standard of debate in this referendum has been little short of abysmal. Both sides have descended into hyperbole and there have been arguments, both for and against leaving, that have been unworthy of civilised debate. All the stuff about immigration, funding for the NHS, arguing the toss over figures, etc, etc, culminating in the disgraceful way that both campaigns seemed incapable of resisting the urge to politicise the dreadful murder of Jo Cox MP, has left me cold. All the aforementioned matters are really just dissembling and distractions. The main issue for me – and the reason I shall vote Leave – is sovereignty. It is a question of whether or not Britain really is a fully-fledged democracy.

Britain is the home of democracy. We invented it (OK, the Greeks have some claim but we perfected it). We are the greatest bastion of liberty on the face of the earth, the home of Magna Carta, of Habeas Corpus, of the right to trial by jury, and we transported the principles of pluralistic representative parliamentary democracy around the world. The English poet John Milton once said “Consider what Nation it is whereof ye are, and whereof ye are the governors: a Nation not slow and dull, but of quick, ingenious and piercing spirit, acute to invent, suttle and sinewy to discours, not beneath the reach of any point the highest that humane capacity can soar to.” How can a nation such as ours tolerate a wholly unaccountable, unelected, foreign power determining the laws that govern us? How can a people as proud and free as the British accept a morass of pettifogging directives from an organisation as fundamentally corrupt as the EU? This is an outdated organisation, that tries to standardise and regulate when it should be encouraging diversity and innovation. How can we barter away our liberties in exchange for membership of a protectionist cartel, which was created economic misery for some of the poorest people in Europe? This is an organisation that has foisted the Euro and economic harmonisation on people who are now, as a consequence, suffering mass unemployment, and crippling austerity, imposed upon them by a technocratic elite they did not elect and have no power to remove. Why would the British want to be a member of such a sclerotic racket? I for one cannot tolerate it one moment longer and am counting down the hours to Thursday.

Finally, although ‘Project Fear’ has tried to frame this debate in such a way that Brexit is the option that incurs all the risk, it is worth remember that there are significant risks in staying in the EU. We do not know for certain what will happen if we leave the EU but, given our inherent national strengths and mercantile tradition (not to mention the fact we run a trade deficit with Europe), we have good reason to place our faith in Britain and embrace our destiny outside the EU with confidence. The Remain side do not want to talk about the risks of staying in the failing EU. They do not know themselves with any certainly what will happen if we stay in. I would invite you all to take a long, cold, hard look at the way the EU is going – failing economically, basket case economies needing massive bailouts, rampant unemployment, particularly youth unemployment (over 50% in some places). In a decade’s time, 90% of global demand will come from outside the EU. Why would we want to keep ourselves shackled to the diminishing market of Europe when there is a big wide world out there for us to trade with?

Being a Brexiteer is not to be a ‘little Englander’ but to be an internationalist. I want the UK to re-emerge into the world as a fully sovereign nation state and to once again be a properly active member of the community of nations, trading all around the world. That is, I believe, the British destiny. We do not need to be just another star on somebody else’s flag. Sir Winston Churchill once said, that “If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea”. I have thought very hard about it and I am choosing the open sea. This is a great country. I believe we can do this. I believe the EU has had its day. Insular regional trading blocs looked like the future once but are irrelevant now, in the globalised world in which we all live. The time has come for the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland to embrace the rest of the world. It is not about immigration, it is not about how much money we send to the EU, or what they did to the UK fishing industry, it is not about racism, or an EU army, it is not even really about the economy or any of the minutiae the two camps have spent the last few weeks arguing about so bitterly. It is a simple question. Do we want to be a free and sovereign people? We will never be asked this question again and we should have the confidence to answer boldly and proudly.

When you go to the polls on Thursday to cast your vote in the most important question of our lifetimes, I would just ask you to take a pause, think, and then remember what nation it is whereof ye are.

The Results, 2026

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