Conservative Leadership 2024

The race to replace Rishi is underway

The runners and riders in the 2024 Conservative leadership contest.

 

As in July 2022, I have decided to do a 'Runner & Riders' blog for the Conservative leadership election. This is despite two big changes since then. Firstly, and most obviously, unlike previous Tory leadership elections, this one will not be a race to select the next Prime Minister. In fact, this is the first time in 19 years that the Conservative Party has picked a leader who has not gone on to immediately become PM (not since David Cameron replaced Michael Howard).

The person the Party chooses will, instead, become the Leader of His Majesty’s Loyal Opposition, following our catastrophic defeat in the General Election in July. It is, in essence, an election to determine who gets to preside over the ashes of our once great party and, hopefully, begin the process of renewal.

Secondly, I write about the contest from a curious perspective, as since the last contest in 2022, I have reached the conclusion that Party members, such as myself, should not have a vote on the leadership. I have come to believe that the Parliamentary Conservative Party (i.e. the MPs themselves) should be the ones to pick the Party Leader. Ultimately, the Leader must, first and foremost, lead our MPs as a group in Westminster. The membership has a nasty habit of electing leaders who appeals to them personally and to their sensibilities, rather than picking a leader who can command the support of our MPs and potentially appeal to the broader electorate. The Conservative Group on Basildon Council elect a leader. This process is not opened up to the wider Party membership locally! The sole qualification needed to become Prime Minister is to command the support of a majority of MPs in the House of Commons. It is essential, therefore, that the Conservative Leader commands the support of a majority of his or her own MPs.

As such, whilst I shall undoubtedly vote – on the principle that I have always voted in every election in which I am entitled to vote – I shall almost certainly use my vote to support the candidate with majority support within the Parliamentary Party. I think it would be sensible to change the rules, so that MPs elect the Party Leader and the membership, instead, directly elect the Party Chairman. But, until that happens, I shall continue to engage in the current process.

This part of the election is governed by the 1922 Committee (the main decision-making body of the Parliamentary Conservative Party). Their new Chairman, Bob Blackman, M.P., announced the close of nominations on July 29th, with six candidates nominated. These candidates are spending the Summer Recess setting out their stall to Party members across the country.

When Parliament returns on September 4^th, Tory MPs will narrow the field down to four candidates through a series of hustings. The ‘Final Four’ will be announced on September 11^th and will go on to make a final pitch to the membership at the annual Conservative Party Conference in Birmingham between September 29^th and October 2^nd.

Following Party Conference, MPs will finally whittle the field down to just two candidates, to be announced by October 11^th.

That will end the parliamentary process and the process will be taken over by the Party Board, who will present the last two candidates to a ballot of qualified Party members. Their choice will then be announced by the Chairman of the 1922, and that person will then formally replace Rishi Sunak as Leader of the Opposition.

Gratifyingly, half of the candidates are Essex MPs!  

The Runners & Riders:

 

KEMI BADENOCH

The Rt. Hon. Kemi Badenoch, M.P. is 44 years old and has been MP for North-West Essex (previously Saffron Walden) since 2017. She is currently the Shadow Housing Secretary.

She began her ministerial career under Boris Johnson, who appointed her a Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Department for Education in 2019. Mr. Johnson later promoted her to Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury in 2020 and also gave her the Equalities brief. In 2021, she was made a Minister in the Department for Levelling Up, Housing & Communities. The following year Liz Truss raised her to Cabinet rank as International Trade Secretary, a position she retained under Rishi Sunak, who added Business to her portfolio. Mr. Sunak also re-appointed her Minister for Women & Equalities, a role in which she has been particularly outspoken, for example refuting ‘critical race theory’.  

Mrs Badenoch was also a candidate in 2022, when Mr. Johnson resigned, but was eliminated in the fourth ballot. Now, as then, I generally find her quite impressive. I met her a few years ago at an event at CCHQ, where she talked passionately about her background. She was born in Wimbledon, where her late father worked as a GP. Her mother is a physiology professor. She spent part of her youth in her parents’ native Nigeria but was born and educated here in the UK. She returned here when she was 16, due to political instability in Nigeria. She worked for a time in a McDonald's before completing a Masters in Computer Engineering at Sussex and later obtained a law degree studying part-time at Birkbeck. She joined the Conservative Party at 25 and worked in IT as a software engineer and systems analyst in financial services and was briefly a member of the London Assembly before being elected to Parliament. She was a Brexiteer and is on the right of the Party. She is married to Hamish Badenoch, a banker and former Tory councillor in Merton, and together they have two daughters and a son. She is agnostic.

Mrs Badenoch was among the less experienced candidates in 2022 and is probably still the least experienced of the six, but this time around is widely considered a frontrunner. Her endorsements include Dr. Alex Burghart (Brentwood & Ongar) and Julia Lopez (Hornchurch & Upminster). Personally, I worry that she is a little too immersed in the ‘culture wars’ at a time when we need to be laser-focused on rebuilding and broadening our appeal to the wider electorate.

  

JAMES CLEVERLY ***ELIMINATED IN THE FOURTH BALLOT***

Lt.-Col. the Rt. Hon. James Cleverly, T.D., V.R., M.P. is 54 years old and has been MP for Braintree since 2015 and is currently Shadow Home Secretary.

He began his ministerial career under Theresa May, who appointed him a Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Department for Exiting the European Union in 2019. He then served under Boris Johnson as Party Chairman, with a seat in the Cabinet, and later as a Minister in the Foreign Office for more than 2 years, until he was brought back into the Cabinet as Education Secretary. Liz Truss then promoted him as the first ever black Foreign Secretary, a Great Office of State that he retained under Rishi Sunak. When the former Prime Minister, Lord Cameron of Chipping Norton, was appointed to the post in a reshuffle, Colonel Cleverly was moved sideways to become Home Secretary.

This is the Colonel's first run at the leadership. He was born in Lewisham to an English father and Sierra Leonean mother, who worked as a midwife. He studied Hospitality Management at Ealing College and later worked in publishing. He also became a Royal Artillery reservist and is currently a staff officer with the 1^st Armoured Division based at Woolwich, and holds the active rank of lieutenant-colonel. In 2008, he was elected to the London Assembly and was re-elected in 2012 prior to his election to Parliament. He was a Brexiteer and is largely a centrist figure. He is married to Susannah, a cancer survivor, with whom he has two sons. The family live in Blackheath.

Colonel Cleverly was the first to declare his candidacy and his endorsements include Peter Fortune (Bromley & Biggin Hill) and Gagan Mohindra (South-West Hertfordshire). At the risk of giving him the kiss of death, at this point he would be my own first choice. He was among the more competent and polished performers of the last Government and a good public speaker with sound Conservative instincts.

 

ROBERT JENRICK

The Rt. Hon. Robert Jenrick, M.P. is 42 years old (making him the youngest candidate) and has been MP for Newark in Nottinghamshire since 2015. He famously resigned as Rishi Sunak’s Immigration Minister in December 2023.

He had previously served as Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury under Theresa May before joining Boris Johnson’s Cabinet as Communities Secretary in 2019, until he was dismissed as part of the reshuffle in September 2021. Mr. Jenrick returned to government under Liz Truss in 2022, when she appointed him a Minister at the Department of Health. As Mr. Sunak’s Immigration Minister, he attended Cabinet but ultimately resigned over his strong disagreements with the Prime Minister over the Rwanda plan (feeling the Government was not going far enough).

This is Mr. Jenrick’s first run at the leadership. He was born in Wolverhampton and grew up in the West Midlands. He read History at St. John’s College, Cambridge and the University of Pennsylvania in the US. He subsequently obtained a law degree and qualified as a solicitor, practicing corporate law. Prior to his election to Parliament, he was a director of Christie’s, the London auction house. He was a Brexiteer and is firmly on the right of the Party. His wife, Michal, was born in Israel and is also a corporate lawyer. They have three daughters, who they are raising in the Jewish faith, and reside at Eye Manor in Herefordshire.

Mr. Jenrick’s endorsements include Sir John Hayes (South Holland & The Deepings) and Esther McVey (Tatton), as well as the Father of the House of Commons, Sir Edward Leigh (Gainsborough). Personally, I worry he is an overly ideological figure, who is too focussed on wooing Reform-voters to successfully rebuild the Conservative Party as the sort of broad coalition it needs to be if it is to regain power.

 

DAME PRITI PATEL ***ELIMINATED IN THE FIRST BALLOT***

The Rt. Hon. Dame Priti Patel, D.B.E., M.P. is 52 years old and has been MP for Witham since 2010. She was Home Secretary under Boris Johnson and was made a dame in his Resignation Honours List.

She is the only candidate not to have served in the Sunak Ministry. She began her ministerial career under David Cameron, who appointed her Exchequer Secretary to the Treasury in 2014, later promoting her to Minister for Employment in the Department for Work & Pensions. Theresa May brought her into the Cabinet as International Development Secretary in 2016.

This is Dame Priti’s first run at the leadership and if Mr. Jenrick is seen as a candidate of the Right then Dame Priti is surely Jenrick on steroids! She was born in London to Gujarati Hindu parents, who were driven out of Uganda by Idi Amin. The family later ran a newsagent in Hertfordshire. She grew up in Watford and read Economics at Keele before pursuing postgraduate studies in Politics at Essex. She is a dyed-in-the-wool Thatcherite and joined the Party in 1991, later working as an intern at Central Office. A lifelong Brexiteer, she became involved in the Referendum Party in the mid-‘90s before rejoining the Tories in ‘97 and working for William Hague as a press officer. She then worked in PR in the private sector before being elected to Parliament. She is married to Alex Sawyer, a marketing consultant and Tory councillor in Bexley. They have a son together.  

Dame Priti’s endorsements include Sir Alec Shelbrooke (Wetherby & Easingwold) and former MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns. The latter endorsement alone ought, in my view, to cast serious doubt on her suitability (Dame Andrea is a cask-strength crank). Whilst I have great respect for Dame Priti, her politics are very different to mine. I am a personal admirer of the late Lady Thatcher but have never considered myself a ‘Thatcherite’ politically, and I would struggle to support a candidate who, for instance, favours the restoration of the death penalty. I cannot see her leading the Party back to a position of electability.

 

MEL STRIDE ***ELIMINATED IN THE SECOND BALLOT***

The Rt. Hon. Mel Stride, M.P. is 62 years old (making him the oldest candidate) and has been MP for Central Devon since 2010 and is currently Shadow Work & Pensions Secretary.

He served in the Whips’ Office under both David Cameron and Theresa May, until the latter appointed him as Paymaster-General and Financial Secretary to the Treasury in 2017. Lady May later made him Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons and latterly he was Work & Pensions Secretary under Rishi Sunak.  

Mr. Stride is probably the ‘dark horse’ of this election, as possibly the candidate least well-known to the general public. He was born in Ealing and educated in Portsmouth. He read PPE at St. Edmund Hall, Oxford, where he was President of the Oxford Union. He is married to Michelle and has three daughters. He and Mrs Stride ran a marketing firm together prior to his election to Parliament.

Mr. Stride’s endorsements include Commander Andrew Murrison (South-West Wiltshire) and Sir Desmond Swayne (New Forest West). He is a close and trusted ally of Mr. Sunak and widely seen as a safe pair of hands. He was a good media performer and is a centrist politically. But I am not sure if he has the public profile to take us forward.   

 

TOM TUGENDHAT ***ELIMINATED IN THE THIRD BALLOT***

Lt.-Col. the Rt. Hon. Tom Tugendhat, M.B.E., V.R., M.P. is 51 years old and has been MP for Tonbridge (previously Tonbridge & Malling) since 2015 and is currently Shadow Security Minister.

He has the least ministerial experience of any of the candidates, having previously served for 5 years as Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee before joining the frontbench. He pitched for the leadership in 2022, following the resignation of Boris Johnson and was eliminated in the third round. Afterwards Liz Truss appointed him Minister for Security, a role he retained under Rishi Sunak.

Colonel Tugendhat was born in Westminster and is the son of retired High Court judge, the Hon. Mr. Justice (Sir Michael) Tugendhat. He is also a nephew of the businessman and Tory peer, Lord Tugendhat. He attended public school and later read theology at Bristol before undertaking a Masters in Islamic Studies at Gonville and Caius College, Cambridge (learning to speak Arabic in the Yemen). He served in the Territorial Army, firstly in the Adjutant General’s Corps and later transferred to the Intelligence Corps, rising to the rank of lieutenant-colonel. He saw active service in Iraq and Afghanistan and was a military assistant to the Chief of the Defence Staff. Colonel Tugendhat was made an MBE (military division) in 2009 and retired from active service in 2013. He is married to senior French civil servant Anissia Morel and, although he has Jewish ancestry, is a practicing Roman Catholic. The couple have two children.

Colonel Tugendhat is the only former Remainer among the candidates and is generally seen as part of the ‘liberal’ wing and probably the main candidate for that particular constituency within the Party, but his supporters include prominent Brexiteers. His endorsements include Dame Karen Bradley (Staffordshire Moorlands), Nick Timothy (West Suffolk), as well as former MPs Steve Baker, Sir Jake Berry, Damian Green, not to mention Kenneth, Lord Clarke of Nottingham. The Colonel is clearly a highly capable and intellectual candidate, but he is the ‘flip-side candidate’ to Mr. Jenrick and Dame Priti Patel. Like them, I fear he is too ideological. He is so far on the ideological left of the Party that I struggle to see how he can successfully unite us ahead of the next election.